Price trend

According to the data of SunSirs, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market was 22,640 RMB/ton on March 31, a daily decrease of 0.44%. Compared with the price of 23,023.33 RMB/ton on last Friday in East China market, the price was down 1.66%.

Taking the peak in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots was 24,240 RMB/ton, and the recent deviation from the peak had dropped by 6.60%. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots was 18,693.33 RMB/ton, a recent increase of 21.11%.

Analysis review

From a fundamental point of view, although the energy price in Europe is at a high level, and the expectation of overseas aluminum ingot production reduction still exists, the aluminum price has already driven up in the early stage, and it is currently at a relatively high level. In terms of demand, the downstream of domestic aluminum ingots is affected by traffic factors, and the downstream operating rate has decreased, the operating rate of aluminum profiles and aluminum sheets, strips and foils has rebounded; In terms of inventory, social inventory has been destocked slightly recently. The main reason for the slight correction in the week was due to the high aluminum price driven by the external disk in the previous period, which hit a wall on the actual demand side.

Market outlook

It is expected that the aluminum price will continue to be suppressed by the 23,000 mark. Under the long-short game, the upward space will be narrowed, and the stable, weak and volatile operation will be the mainstay.

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