1、 Price quotation
According to the data of SunSirs, the price of 3128b lint on the 31st was about 22940 RMB/ton, up 0.66% month on month and 50.24% year-on-year.
2、 Market analysis
In March, the cotton market fluctuated and consolidated. On the 31st, the average price of domestic cotton price index 3128b was 22899 RMB/ton, up 243 RMB/ton from the beginning of the month. At the beginning of this month, the traditional textile peak season "gold, silver and four" did not come as scheduled, and the demand side failed to help the rise of cotton. Affected by the rise of commodity prices, Zheng Mian fluctuated upward. The supply of cotton in the spot market is loose. Recently, the domestic epidemic has been repeated, and the downstream demand has weakened again. The market is generally cautious about the future market. At present, supported by high acquisition costs and high commodity prices, the domestic cotton price is high. By the end of the month, affected by the sharp rise of cotton in ice period, the advantage of imported cotton continued to weaken. The replenishment of stocks was basically dominated by national reserve cotton, high-quality real estate cotton and low basis difference Xinjiang cotton. Buy as you use and purchase according to orders, so as to reduce the risk brought by high cotton prices. According to the statistics of China Cotton network in March, the intended planting area of cotton in China in 2022 was 43.98 million mu, an increase of 789000 Mu year-on-year, an increase of 1.8%. As of the 30th, the cumulative total processing volume of lint in Xinjiang was 5.3065 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.93%.
In terms of cotton futures, the focus of this month is upward. On the 31st, the settlement price of Zheng cotton's main contract was 21755 RMB/ton, an increase of 925 RMB/ton compared with the beginning of the month. At present, the external market has risen sharply, and the strong performance of the external market has formed a strong support for Zheng Mian. The contract period price of Zheng Mian's main 2205 contract is close to the line of 22000 RMB/ton, but the trend is obviously weaker than the external market, and the price difference between internal and external disk and internal and external spot has been greatly reduced. Domestic cotton spot remained stable, only supported by the supply side, and did not follow the futures and external market to increase the quotation.
Internationally, since late March, the high-level dialogue between China and the United States and China's acceleration of U.S. cotton shipment have been boosted by the combination of market concerns caused by the dry weather in Texas and the good performance of U.S. cotton export data. After the sharp rise of the cotton market in ice period, it has reached a new high. In the past six months, the price of U.S. cotton has repeatedly exceeded the price high since July 2011. As of the 30th, the may contract was 139.84 cents, up 17.09 cents from the beginning of the month; The July contract was 136.20 cents, up 16.98 cents from the beginning of the month. On the 31st, the international cotton price index (SM) was 157.43 cents / pound; The international cotton price index (m) was 155.67 cents / pound, up significantly from the beginning of the month. Not only American cotton, but also Indian cotton prices have risen more significantly this month. Since late March, the purchase price of Indian domestic seed cotton, spot prices such as S-6 and McX futures have once again reached a new height in the history of Indian cotton market. However, Indian cotton has shrunk and weakened rapidly both in domestic procurement demand and export contracts. Most buyers no longer inquire or suspend taking goods, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.
3、 Downstream industry chain
The cotton yarn market fell in March. On the 31st, the price of 32S all cotton yarn in Shandong was 30566 RMB/ton, down 0.92% month on month and up 14.48% year-on-year. In terms of cotton yarn quotation, the ex factory prices in many places have been adjusted downward one after another. Supported by upstream costs, the quotation market in Shandong is stable. However, the crude oil market once rose sharply in March, and the price of cotton yarn substitutes rose sharply, so yarn enterprises are unwilling to reduce the price. On the 31st, the settlement price of the main contract of cotton yarn was 28320 RMB/ton, an increase of 425 RMB/ton compared with the beginning of the month. Under the cold demand, the increase of cotton yarn futures was not significant.
The downstream demand of domestic cotton textile is low, and the downstream demand orders have not been started since March. At the same time, affected by the counterattack of the domestic epidemic, the local prevention and control measures have been upgraded, which further reduces the downstream demand, makes it more difficult for enterprises to ship, and the finished product inventory continues to accumulate. Traders have a strong willingness to go to the warehouse, and some enterprises take goods at low prices, but the effect is general. Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang and other provinces with dense textile enterprises have been greatly affected by the control measures, and the operating rate of textile enterprises has been greatly affected. Some regions have stopped production, and under the pressure of soaring costs, textile enterprises are more willing to reduce the operating rate. From the perspective of the profits of textile enterprises, the high price cotton has obvious profit compression for textile enterprises, the terminal demand is weak, and the demand side has failed to support the rise of the cotton yarn market. At present, the market lacks confidence in the later stage, the price focus of cotton yarn is downward, the diversion of overseas orders is prominent, there is no sign of recovery, and the transmission resistance of domestic high-cost cotton to the downstream is large.
From the terminal point of view, the domestic and foreign sales orders of textile and clothing fell in March. According to statistics, 74.36% of domestic enterprises and 81.77% of foreign trade enterprises reduced their orders. More than 60% of the enterprises in the cotton textile industry chain have decreased from the middle end spinning and weaving links to the end home textile, clothing, and year-on-year orders. 73.81% of the enterprises said that the inventory of finished products increased compared with the same period last year, with an average increase of 32.25%. Under the pressure of lack of orders, the expectation of periodic reduction and shutdown of enterprises has increased recently. With the normalization of the epidemic and the acceleration of resumption of work and production in Southeast Asia, textile and clothing orders began to flow back to Southeast Asian countries gradually.
4、 Future forecast
Affected by the geopolitical crisis and inflation, at present, the gauze orders in the downstream of various countries have decreased significantly. The recent sharp rise in the market of foreign cotton and foreign yarn has eliminated the price advantage of imported yarn. The textile factory continues the weak market as a whole, and the market mentality is pessimistic. It is expected that the short-term cost support, the cotton market will remain high, and the cotton yarn support is insufficient or will continue to fall.
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