Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of Sunsirs, the copper price first rose and then fell in April. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 73670 RMB/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price rose slightly to 74075 RMB/ton, with an overall increase of 0.55% and a year-on-year increase of 4.45%.

According to the current chart of business society, in April, the spot price of copper was higher than the futures price, and the main contract was the expected price in two months, indicating that everyone was optimistic about the future market of copper price.

According to LME inventory, copper inventory rebounded in April.

Macro aspect: according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in March, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the critical point, and the overall prosperity level of the manufacturing industry fell somewhat. Due to the complex international situation and repeated domestic epidemics, China's macro economy is facing unprecedented pressure, macro risks still exist, non-ferrous metals are under obvious pressure, and the price fluctuation range is increased.

In terms of supply: since March, there have been outbreaks in many places in China. Measures such as 24-hour nucleic acid in the market and nucleic acid at the scene of high-speed intersections have been introduced one after another. The logistics is not smooth, resulting in the overstock of inventory in the factory and in transit of some enterprises. The short-term social inventory will continue to increase, which will suppress the price of raw materials.

Demand: the impact of the epidemic on downstream and end consumption will continue to ferment. Some cities still have strict prevention and control policies. Some downstream processing enterprises are facing problems such as insufficient raw materials and difficult capital turnover. The operating rate of enterprises has declined and the market consumption has been significantly affected.

From the above situation, it has always been the traditional peak consumption season from March to April, but this year's "gold, silver-three and four" did not appear. Under the continuous interference of the domestic epidemic, the market demand is weak, the logistics transportation in many places is blocked, and the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises is far lower than that in the same period last year. On the eve of the domestic May Day holiday, the downstream terminal is expected to have a wave of demand for goods, or support the copper price. However, the hawks of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and shrinking tables at the weekend suppressed the price. Overall, the market uncertainty is still high. The epidemic situation may improve in May, and the copper price or shock is expected to be strong.

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