Price trend

The average price in the domestic market was 349,130 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 336,130 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 3.72%.

On April 29, the base metal index was 1,504 points, an increase of 2 points from previous day, a decrease of 6.93% from the highest point in the cycle of 1,616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 134.27%from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to the present).

Analysis review

The domestic futures market was closed during the Qingming Festival holiday. At the beginning of the month, boosted by the rise in crude oil, the metal market generally rose, and London tin followed suit. Later, as the dollar rose, the metal market was generally under pressure, and the London tin opened downward under pressure. Shanghai tin basically followed the trend of London tin, rising first and then falling, falling back from the high on the 6th, and the domestic spot market followed the futures market price sharply down. Later, with the weak supply and demand of domestic fundamentals, the market was on the sidelines, and the price of tin kept fluctuating in a wide range for about half a month.

After the 19th, Shanghai tin ushered in the main contract exchange month. From the fundamental point of view, the problem of raw materials in supply and demand had been alleviated to a certain extent. The market expected that with the improvement of the import side in April, the overall supply would improve to some extent after some Indonesian sources enter the market. The operating rate of downstream end users on the demand side had increased to a certain extent, but downstream demand had not fully recovered due to various factors, and the overall demand was still weak, and tin prices had fallen under the drag of demand.

Market outlook

SunSirs believes that the overall performance of supply and demand is weak in terms of fundamentals, and the fundamentals of tin have not changed much. The price of tin fluctuates with the overall market sentiment. Low inventory is still the main factor to boost the price of tin. LME inventory and domestic inventory are generally low. It is expected that tin prices will volatile at a high level under the support of low inventories.

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