According to the monitoring of the SunSirs, in April, the domestic adipic acid came out of the shock downward pattern. On the one hand, the cost side was not very good, the pure benzene range fluctuated, the support was insufficient, and the performance of cyclohexanone was weak and fell. Moreover, driven by factors such as relative excess supply and insufficient demand, adipic acid continued to decline. Throughout the month, adipic acid decreased by 5.78%. At the end of the month, the mainstream transaction price of adipic acid in East China was 11900-12200 yuan / ton.

Supply side

In terms of market supply, the operating rate of manufacturers this month is mainly flat compared with the previous month, about 70%. Although the operating rate did not rise significantly, since the rise of the operating rate in March, the inventory of large factories has generally increased, and the shipping pressure has only increased. In terms of commencement, in addition to the temporary maintenance of Liaohua, other devices basically maintained the early state during the month, Tianli and Shandong Haili maintained 80% load reduction and started construction, Zhonghao 90%, and Jiangsu Haili and Taihua devices still stopped. Although the operating rate is not high, the manufacturer's inventory is under heavy pressure in the early stage, and it is still falling into the inventory one after another. In the case of insufficient demand, relatively abundant supply is the fundamental reason for the decline of adipic acid price.

Cost side

Market trend of pure benzene in the upstream of adipic acid

According to the monitoring of the SunSirs, the high-level consolidation of pure benzene this month increased slightly this month, with an increase of 0.59%. The price of plateau feed still supports the downstream adipic acid. However, the support was significantly weaker than that of the previous month.

Market trend of cyclohexanone in the upstream of adipic acid

The price of cyclohexanone also fell slightly this month, down 1.17%. The downstream demand is low, the caprolactam unit operates at low load as a whole, and the demand for raw material cyclohexanone is weak. Some caprolactam enterprises reduce production, but cyclohexanone is exported. On the whole, cyclohexanone is in a weak balance between supply and demand.

The upstream products cyclohexanone and pure benzene have little rise and fall, and the trend is weakened. However, considering the high oil price and the situation in Russia and Ukraine may lead to the long-term operation of high oil price, it is expected that the price of adipic acid will be blocked in the later stage with the gradual transmission of cost.

Demand side

Market trend of adipic acid downstream PA66

Terminal demand: the demand for adipic acid remained weak this month, the epidemic and transportation problems restrained some procurement demand, and the downstream construction was relatively sluggish. Although it was close to the holiday, the downstream factories did not have the peak of advance preparation in previous years. The orders shall be mainly based on the rigid demand, and the actual orders shall be negotiated for many low-level transactions. In terms of export, there is little change in the delivery volume, but the price mostly runs at a low price with the domestic market price. Generally speaking, the weak demand for adipic acid in April is the core reason for the weak price.

Downstream product PA66: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, PA66 fell sharply in April, with a range of - 13.781%. The load level of domestic PA66 enterprises is generally in high dynamic balance. There is a lot of spot supply on the site, which suppresses the profit of PA66 plant to a certain extent. In terms of port, the inventory position is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. In terms of demand, at present, terminal enterprises take goods to follow up, prefer to just need to maintain production, and have strong resistance to high price goods. In addition, at present, the impact of domestic health events on East China has not ended, and logistics in many places have been affected to varying degrees. The demand of some downstream factories in China has shrunk, the contradiction between supply and demand has become more and more serious, and merchants have great shipping resistance.

Adipic acid industry chain trend

The above figure shows that in April, the upstream of adipic acid industrial chain was strong, the upstream product pure benzene increased slightly, and the decline of cyclohexanone was small. While the cost side was still good for adipic acid, it also brought cost pressure to adipic acid manufacturers, and the profits of manufacturers decreased significantly compared with last month. In addition, the price of PA66 in the downstream is weakening, indicating that the downstream demand for adipic acid is still weakening. The high cost has brought a certain degree of pressure on the terminal demand.

Outlook

Recently, the SunSirs believes that the cost side: raw material pure benzene mostly follows the trend of crude oil, and the high oil price brings support to pure benzene, but adipic acid will still face the pressure from high cost in the future. The manufacturer will mainly support the price in the later stage or gradually. This will also inhibit the further downward trend of the market. Adipic acid is expected to bottom out in the short term. However, considering the impact of the domestic epidemic and transportation restrictions, downstream demand may still be weak in the next month. Therefore, adipic acid does not have the power to rebound strongly. Comprehensively considered, the market will still maintain interval adjustment in the near future.

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