Recent urea price trend
As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price fell slightly this week, from 3275.00 RMB/ton last weekend to 3265.00 RMB/ton this weekend, an increase of 0.31%, an increase of 41.96% over the same period last year. On May 19, the urea commodity index was 151.86, up 0.19 points from yesterday, down 0.31% from 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and up 173.13% from 55.60 points, the lowest point on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
The cost support is insufficient, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is slightly low
From the manufacturer's quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea fell slightly this week. Zhangzhou San'an urea quoted 3500 RMB/ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 3220 RMB/ton this weekend, down 30 RMB/ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 3205 RMB/ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend;
From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea fell slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas fell slightly, from 6936.00 RMB/ton last weekend to 6814.00 RMB/ton this weekend, down 1.76%, up 88.41% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; Coal prices have fluctuated in a narrow range recently. The price of liquid ammonia fell slightly, from 5333.33 RMB/ton last weekend to 5223.33 RMB/ton this weekend, down 2.06%, up 33.82% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, from 10300.00 RMB/ton last weekend to 10175.00 RMB/ton this weekend, down 1.21%.
From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand follows up on demand and industrial demand slows down. The agricultural demand in Xinjiang, Jiangsu and Anhui is good, and follow-up is mainly on demand. The wait-and-see atmosphere for high priced urea in Hefei enterprises is becoming stronger, the procurement slows down, the plate factory purchases on demand, the price of melamine decreases slightly, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is weakened. From the perspective of supply: the daily output of urea this week is about 150000 tons, slightly lower than that of last week, and the urea inventory is at a low level. Internationally: Pakistan may seek China's urea assistance again and plans to purchase 200000 tons. Various factors continue to drive up the price of urea. The policy of ensuring supply and price stability remains unchanged.
Urea prices fell slightly in the future
In late May, the domestic urea market may decline slightly, dominated by consolidation. Urea analysts of business society believe that the upstream market fell slightly and the cost support weakened. Agricultural demand is general, industrial demand is weakened, and downstream customers have a strong wait-and-see attitude towards high price urea. The policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price remained unchanged, and urea fell slightly in the future.
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