Price trend

As shown in the figure above, copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper price was 72,603.33 RMB/ton, up 0.3% from the price of 72,388.33 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and down 1.81% year-on-year.

Analysis review

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, in the past three months, copper prices have risen for 7 weeks and fell for 5 weeks, and the overall trend of copper prices has been weak recently.

According to data from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics, the global copper market had a supply shortage of about 189,000 tons in the first quarter of this year, which had reached 30% compared with the 473,000-ton shortage in the whole of last year. Expectations of tighter supply kept copper prices at record highs. From a fundamental point of view, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic copper decreased by about 6,500 tons last week, and the registered warehouse receipts for l dollar copper also fell significantly this month, and the domestic and foreign spot premiums gradually increased.

Last week, the spot TC of copper concentrate decreased by 1 US dollars compared with last week, and the demand for raw materials from smelters had rebounded, but the supply had not seen a significant increase. In addition, with the re-closing of the import window, the amount of refined copper customs clearance has decreased compared with the previous period. Internal and external copper inventories showed a decline, which still supported copper prices.

However, the domestic epidemic has repeated, consumption is still sluggish, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates, the US dollar has continued to strengthen, and short-term domestic demand has been suppressed. The overall macro environment is not conducive to copper prices. The weakening of the impact of the epidemic in the later period and the support of domestic stimulus policies will cause copper prices to be in a dilemma.

Market outlook

It is expected that copper prices will remain fluctuating on the strong side within a narrow range.

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