Price trend

According to the nickel price monitoring of SunSirs, the nickel price in May still maintains a wide fluctuation trend. At the beginning of the month, the nickel price was 235,300 RMB/ton, and at the end of the month, the nickel price fell slightly to 227,766.67 RMB/ton, with an overall decrease of 3.2% and a year-on-year increase of 71.04%. In May, nickel prices, like in April, have been fluctuating in a wide range.

Analysis review

In terms of supply: the stock of nickel in London is still at a low level, and the supply of refined nickel in the domestic market is still tight, which supports the price of nickel. However, as Indonesia's wet process and pyro process projects are put into operation one after another, the new production of nickel will greatly alleviate the shortage of refined nickel supply. It is expected that the overall domestic refined nickel output will reach 12,500 tons in May, an increase of 4.55% month-on-month and 0.21% year-on-year.

In terms of demand: In May, 40 domestic stainless steel plants planned to produce 1.4492 million tons of series 300 crude steel, which is expected to decrease by 1.9% month-on-month and 9.6% year-on-year. In May, the estimated output of ternary cathode materials in China is 37,000 tons, an increase of 1.04% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 13.76%.

Market outlook

To sum up: inventory continues to be low, and as the pressure of the epidemic eases, the domestic stainless steel and ternary battery industries are expected to resume work and production. At present, spot resources in the domestic market are still tight, and premiums remain high, supporting nickel prices. Market transactions have improved slightly compared with the previous period, but demand is still relatively sluggish due to the epidemic. In the case of weak supply and demand, it is expected that the nickel price in June will still show a trend of high and wide fluctuations.

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