- Price Trend
As of November 15, the average ex-factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 6,083.33 RMB/ton, 0.05% lower than 6,086.67 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week, and the actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha was about 6,000 RMB/ton.
As of November 15, the naphtha commodity index was 75.08, up 0.12 points from the previous day, down 26.84% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 77.75% from 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)
- Analysis of Influencing Factors
Product: last week, the price of refined naphtha was first depressed and then increased, and trading was basically stable.
Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, WTI crude oil in the United States was $57.24 /barrel at the beginning of the week, $56.77 /barrel at the end of the week, up or down by - 0.82%; Brent crude oil was $62.51 /barrel at the beginning of the week, $62.28 /barrel at the end of the week, up or down by - 0.37%. OPEC countries were expected to continue to expand the scale of production reduction, and U.S. crude oil inventory growth, with production reaching a record high. Downstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, the market picked up a little last week, and the volume of transactions increased. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5,750-5,820 RMB/ton. Influenced by the low port inventory and the rebound of international oil price, the price of domestic isomeric xylene market rebounded steadily last week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 6,300-6,350 RMB/ton. Last week, the domestic PX price trend was temporarily stable, while the external price rose slightly, and the market price was about 6,800 RMB/ton. Last week, the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises increased slightly, the price difference with crude benzene narrowed, the loss space narrowed, and the market focus shifted up. Currently, the price of hydrogenated benzene in East China is 5,250-5,350 RMB/ton.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 45th week of 2019 (11.11-11.15), there are three kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, the top 3 of which are liquefied natural gas (LNG) (3.27%), MTBE (1.23%) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) (0.34%). There are ten kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with methanol (- 4.10%), petroleum coke (- 3.96%) and dimethyl ether (DME) (- 2.98%) as the top 3 products. Last week, the average increase and decrease was -0.57%.
- Market Forecast
SunSirs’ energy analysts believe that this week, the price of refined naphtha will be suppressed then be increased. At present, refineries are actively pushing up, some suppliers are stocking up, and it is expected that the price of hydrotreating naphtha will rise in the near future, with the average price range of 6,000-6,200 RMB/ton.
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