Price trend

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the price of thermal coal rose first and then fell this month. The energy index on June 30 was 1,201 points, down 1 point from previous day, down 23.06% from the highest point in the cycle (1,561 points on 2021-10-21), and up 135.03% points from the lowest point of 511 points on March 01, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to the present)

Analysis review

The overall price of thermal coal rose first and then fell this month. Coal production in the main producing areas was tightened recently due to safety production, but most coal mines were actively fulfilling the use of coal for medium and long-term cooperation and coal for large households. There were few resources available for sale in the market, and the overall sentiment was still to wait and see. In the downstream port market, the terminal daily consumption rebounded recently, but the purchase price was still low. The quotations of traders were firm, and the quotations rose slightly. The overall transaction was still dominated by long-term cooperation. The overall thermal coal price in June was not prosperous during the peak season.

From January to May, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size was 53.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%; the operating cost was 44.88 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.2%; the operating income profit margin was 6.47%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.52%. At the end of May, the assets of industrial enterprises above designated size totaled 147.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%; the total liabilities were 83.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.5%; the total owner's equity was 64.05 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.2%; the asset-liability ratio was 56.6%, which was flat year-on-year. At the end of May, the accounts receivable of industrial enterprises above designated size was 19.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year; the inventory of finished products was 5.96 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.7%. From January to May, the operating cost of the mining industry was 166.437 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.5%. From January to May, the operating cost of the coal mining and washing industry was 982.80 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.1%.

Market outlook

Analysts of SunSirs believe that thermal coal is not prosperous in the peak season, and the price is now rising slightly. However, due to the policy impact, there is not much room for growth. Although traders are more willing to ship, power plants are taking a wait-and-see attitude. It is generally expected that thermal coal has room for growth , but the upside is not large, depending on the downstream market demand.

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