Price trend

According to the monitoring of SunSirs: the average price of first-grade white sugar at the beginning of this week was 5,852 RMB/ton, and the average price of first-grade white sugar at the weekend was 5,850 RMB/ton, the price fell by 0.03%, and the price increased by 3.72% compared with the same period last year.

Analysis review

The domestic sugar sales pressure in July was relatively high. After entering August, with the reduction of inventory pressure, sugar companies will gradually enter a state of low inventory before the launch of the new sugar beet in the north in October. At this time, because the market is not connected, the price is easy to rise and hard to fall. As of the end of June, the country produced a total of 9.56 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year decrease of 1.11 million tons; the cumulative sales of sugar was 6.01 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 820,000; the industrial inventory was 3.55 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 290,000 tons.

At present, the global sugar production is dominated by Brazil in the southern hemisphere. Although the Brazilian ICMS tax cut bill and the correction of crude oil have hit the confidence of the ethanol market, the market still has a lot of differences around the Brazilian sugar alcohol ratio. The data released by UNICA in the second half of June is highly consistent with market expectations, and the sugar-to-alcohol ratio is recovering a little bit, from 43% at the beginning of the press to the current 45.46%.

Market outlook

Under the background of import cost support and the peak consumption season in summer, the sugar price is generally easy to rise and hard to fall in the later period. It is expected that the domestic sugar market may be dominated by shocks to be strong.

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