Price trend

This week, the lead market (7.15-7.22) fluctuated and rose. The average price in the domestic market was 14,630 RMB/ton last weekend and 15,160 RMB/ton this weekend, a weekly increase of 3.62%.

Analysis review

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 29th week of 2022 (7.18-7.22), there were 6 kinds of commodities in the non-ferrous sector of the commodity price change list that increased month-on-month, of which 1 commodity has an increase of more than 5%, accounting for the monitored commodities in this sector. The top 3 commodities were nickel (9.89%), copper (2.24%) and lead (1.40%). A total of 13 commodities fell month-on-month, and 1 commodity fell by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; the top 3 products that fell were magnesium (-5.15%) and cobalt (-4.49%). , praseodymium neodymium alloy (-3.43%). This week's average change was -0.45%.

In the futures market, the lead in London was mainly on the rise this week, and the overall operating range was 1,934-2,039.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of more than 3%. On the macro level, the US dollar fell from a high level, and the metal market was generally boosted. Shanghai lead rose to 15,325 RMB/ton on Thursday, a weekly increase of over 3.5%. In terms of inventory, Shanghai lead inventories fell significantly this week, down 11,777 tons during the week, and London lead inventories did not change much.

From a fundamental point of view, there has been little change in the supply side recently. The refineries have successively completed maintenance and resumed production, and the output has recently rebounded to a certain extent. In terms of primary lead, it has not recovered due to the impact of power outages in Anhui. The downstream side is boosted by the end of the seasonal off-season and the peak season, and the sales of batteries have improved to a certain extent. In the early stage, the lead price fell, and some downstream parties actively purchased. At present, the overall social inventory of lead ingots has declined significantly, giving lead prices obvious support. However, after the lead price has risen, the actual transaction situation in the market has declined compared with the previous period, and the downstream overall is on the sidelines.

Market outlook

On the whole, the current macroscopic performance of the lead ingot market is acceptable. The downstream peak season demand is expected to increase, and the inventory decline, which boost the lead price. It is expected that lead prices will have a certain room for growth under the boost of demand, and focus on the macro impact when the fundamental changes are limited.

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