Price trend
As can be seen from the above figure, the ex-factory price of 2-EH in Shandong fluctuated and fell this month. The price fell from 8,900.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 8,166.67 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 8.24%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell by 56.25% year-on-year.
On July 27, the 2-EH commodity index was 60.54, the same as previous day, down 55.97% from the highest point of 137.50 points in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 72.23% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 01, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to the present)
Analysis review
From the perspective of manufacturers' quotations, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of 2-EH in Shandong fell slightly this month, and the inventory of manufacturers was average. Lihuayi’s 2-EH was quoted at 8,100 RMB/ton at the end of the month, which was a decrease of 700 RMB/ton compared with the beginning of the month; Jianlan Chemical’s 2-EH unit was under maintenance; Hualu Hengsheng's 2-EH was quoted at 8,300 RMB/ton at the end of the month, which was a drop of 800 RMB/ton compared with the beginning of the month.
From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the upstream propylene market fell slightly this month. The price of propylene fell from 7,680.60 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 7,234.60 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 5.81%, a decrease of 7.51% compared with the same period last year, and cost support was insufficient. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly. The price of DOP dropped from 9,550.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 8,875.00 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 7.07%, and a decrease of 43.56% compared with the same period last year. Downstream sentiment fell slightly, and downstream customers were less motivated to purchase 2-EH. On the whole, upstream and downstream products had a negative impact on the price of 2-EH this month.
Market outlook
In mid-to-early August, the domestic 2-EH market may fluctuate and fall slightly, mainly finishing. The price of upstream propylene has fallen slightly recently, and the cost support is insufficient. The downstream DOP market has fallen slightly, and there is still a downward trend at the end of the month. The enthusiasm of downstream manufacturers to purchase 2-EH is weakened, and the product trend is down due to the contradiction between supply and demand. The 2-EH analyst of SunSirs believes that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short term, the domestic 2-EH market may fluctuate slightly and decline.
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