Price data

According to SunSirs, as of July 31, the average price of China domestic fuel oil 180CST was 6,500.00 RMB/ ton, down 1.96% from 6,630.00 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the month.

On July 31, the fuel oil commodity index was 131.65, unchanged from yesterday, down 2.98% from 135.70, the highest point in the cycle (2022-06-21), and up 185.70% from 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic fuel oil 180CST price continued to fall in July, the domestic marine oil raw material price fluctuated downward, and the fuel oil 180CST cost support was limited. According SunSirs, as of July 31, the quotation of 180CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan area of zhongran was 6,500 RMB/ ton, and the quotation of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil was 6,600 RMB/ ton; The quotation of 180CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai was 6,500 RMB/ ton, and the quotation of 120CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil was 6,600 RMB/ ton.

In July, the international crude oil price fluctuated downward. On the one hand, the EIA inventory data of the United States showed that the node oil products unexpectedly surged during the peak driving season. On the other hand, Beixi No.1 was restarted, and the easing of the European energy crisis brought bad news to the oil market. In addition, the European Central Bank raised interest rates, causing concerns about falling demand. It can be seen that the oil market long and short performance is quite sticky. Under the background of the global central bank raising interest rates, controlling inflation will bring downward pressure on all kinds of risky assets. On the other hand, the peak driving season in August in the United States may come to an end. According to the latest data, gasoline inventories in the United States have increased unexpectedly in the recent week, which also indicates that demand may end ahead of schedule. In addition, the repeated outbreaks in Asia and the blockade measures may bring some pressure to the oil market.

Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased, supporting fuel oil prices. It is understood that Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of July 27, Singapore's fuel oil storage fell by 1.756 million barrels to an 11 week low of 18.046 million barrels. Singapore's light distillate oil inventory jumped by 1.815 million barrels, hitting a record high of 18.021 million barrels. Singapore's medium distillate stocks fell 826,000 barrels to a seven week low of 7.244 million barrels.

Market forecast

In July, the international crude oil price fluctuated downward, which has limited support for the domestic ship fuel market, general market terminal demand, limited delivery, strong wait-and-see mood, cautious downstream delivery mentality, light market transactions as a whole, and just need to purchase. At present, the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 180CST is about 6,500 RMB/ ton, and the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 120CST is about 6,600 RMB/ ton, which is a single discussion. It is expected that China fuel oil 180CST market may be dominated by consolidation in the near future.

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