Against the backdrop of the continuing war between Russia and Ukraine, the deterioration of Europe's geography, the imposition of sanctions on Russia by Europe and the United States, and Russia's use of energy to take countermeasures, all these may point to a result - the "energy crisis" in the European market may be ignited again, or then turn into a global energy shortage.

From the end of the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2021, the scene of the outbreak of the European energy crisis is still vivid. In Europe, electricity is in short supply, and the price of natural gas has soared, doubling; At the same time, the oil price soared, and WTI stood at the $80 level. At the same time, due to "power rationing" in China, coal prices once rose sharply, and thermal coal rose by more than 100% over the same period. The "oil", "gas" and "coal" of traditional fossil energy have experienced an unprecedented rising storm.

This year, various signs indicate that the "energy crisis" may come ahead of schedule. The following points are for reference only:

1. With Russia controlling the supply, the current situation of natural gas shortage in Europe will become more and more intense, and the price will reach a new high.

2. In the context of global high inflation, the Federal Reserve led the global central banks to raise interest rates, which brought the risk of economic recession. There was macroeconomic pressure on crude oil, but under the basic logic of tight supply, high oil prices would still dominate in the second half of the year.

3. The lack of "gas" in Europe and the emergency of electricity will make greater efforts to shift to coal resources, or lead to the shortage of global coal supply, and the coal price will continue to rise.

SunSirs analysts believe that in the coming months of 2022, global energy will remain tense. Especially in the European market, oil, natural gas and coal prices will rise due to supply shortages. This will then be transmitted to the world, and high energy prices will dominate. But at the same time, we should also pay attention to the Fed's interest rate hike trend. This year, we have completed four interest rate hikes, and the interest rate range has reached 2.25-2.50. In the later stage, we should pay attention to when the inflation data peak and return, as well as the process and end node of interest rate hikes by global central banks. At the same time, we should be alert to the impact of high energy prices on demand and the development of the epidemic, and beware of the risk of negative demand feedback.

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