Price trend

The spot tin market price (7.29-8.5) fluctuated many times this week, and the overall price went up. The average price of the domestic market was 195,710 RMB/ton on last weekend and 199,210 RMB/ton on this weekend, a weekly increase of 1.79%.

Analysis review

From the K-bar chart of commodity prices, it can be seen that tin prices continued to weaken after April.

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 31st week of 2022 (8.1-8.5), there were 4 kinds of commodities in the non-ferrous sector of the commodity price change list that increased month-on-month, the top 3 commodities were gold (1.39%), zinc (1.27%), aluminum (0.56%). A total of 16 commodities fell month-on-month, and a total of 4 commodities fell by more than 5%, accounting for 17.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector; the top 3 products that fell were neodymium oxide (-6.14%), praseodymium oxide (-5.85%) %), metallic neodymium (-5.58%). The average change this week was -1.9%.

In the futures market, this week, the London tin continued to fluctuate in a wide range, and the Shanghai tin fluctuated at a high level. On the macro level, the geopolitical situation was tense at the beginning of the week, and the risk aversion was strong, and the metal market was generally down under pressure. On Friday, the sentiment of the metal market was boosted by the fall in the US dollar index. The metal market rose as a whole, and Shanghai tin followed suit.

With the gradual recovery of domestic smelter maintenance, the supply of tin has gradually loosened recently, while there has not been much change in downstream demand recently. The overall start-up of tin and solder enterprises is still low, and there are fewer orders. In terms of inventory, social inventory was slightly destocked this week, and the overall inventory level was higher than the same period last year. On the whole, the market expects that tin production will increase in August, and the main producing areas such as Yunnan and Jiangxi will gradually resume production, and supply is expected to increase.

Market outlook

The downstream demand is weak, and the tin price is difficult to support. It is expected that the tin price will not have enough power to rise, and it is expected that the tin price may be under pressure in the future.

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