1.Price Trend
According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of sanyuan pigs at home and abroad rose sharply in August, with an average price of RMB 18.43/kg at the beginning of August and RMB 23.43/kg on August 30, a sharp increase of 27.13%.
2.Cause analysis
Affected by the factors of African swine plague, domestic pig stocks continued to decline at the bottom, and domestic pig stocks continued to decline in July. Entering the August, the domestic pig market has tighten up the supply situation of pigs, and the quality of pigs has been slaughtered. The overall procurement difficulty of slaughterhouses has been increasing. In addition, the weather has turned cold after the autumn, and the market demand for terminal meat has picked up. Price breaks through the RMB 10/kg barrier in an all-round way.
In the middle of the typhoon, the landing of "Li Qi Ma" led to widespread wind and rain in China. Extreme weather factors caused a great increase in the difficulty of domestic pig transportation, and there was a situation of no pigs being sold in the domestic pig market. The supply gap of the pig market was widening, and the pig market had entered the market without price. Continuous increase in the purchase price, livestock farmers generally bullish the future market price of pigs, the price of domestic pig market has risen steadily under the support of many factors.
In August, the price of domestic maize market moved forward slightly, and the price of soybean meal rose by 11.15%. The rising cost of breeding and feeding will also play a certain role in boosting the price rise of domestic pig market. The profit of farming has risen sharply, and the enthusiasm of farmers to supplement railings has increased. Limited by epidemic factors, domestic pigs will be born in the short term. It is difficult to quickly restore the stock to its previous high.
Data: According to the latest data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas, the pig stocks in 400 monitoring counties decreased by 9.4% in July 2019, 32.2% in July 2018, 8.9% in July 2019 and 31.9% in July 2018.
3.Future Market Forecast
Li Wenxu, an analyst of live pig products in SunSirs, believes that under the influence of epidemic factors, it is difficult to restore high domestic pig stocks in the short term, and the tight supply situation in the pig market will be difficult to alleviate in the short term. It is expected that domestic pig prices will still have some room to rise in September. We need to continue to pay attention to the epidemic pattern in September, and we still need to pay attention to the two-section consumption belt. Supporting the price of frozen meat stored in China and its release from storage have a negative effect on the price of meat.