According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the natural rubber commodity index on August 24 was 35.97, down 0.11 points from the previous day, down 64.03% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 31.85% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)
Since the middle and late August, the domestic natural rubber (standard 1) market in East China has been fluctuating slightly: on August 11, the mainstream price in East China market was about 12,110 RMB/ ton, and on August 24, the main price was 12,130 RMB/ ton, a slight increase of 0.17%. Among them, the highest point of the price in the stage was 12,192 RMB/ ton on August 17, and the lowest point was 12,060 RMB/ ton on August 19. The maximum amplitude was only 1.08%. According to the data of business agency, on August 24, the mainstream spot price of natural rubber in East China (Hainan Island) was 12,130 RMB/ ton, down 0.30% from the previous trading day, down 7.76% year-on-year, only 1.85% higher than the lowest price of the year (11,910 RMB/ ton on July 22). Currently, it is still in the trough period of the annual market.
On August 23, international crude oil futures rose sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $93.74/barrel, up US $3.38 or 3.7%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $100.22/barrel, up US $3.74 or 3.9%. During the Iran nuclear negotiations, the expectation of Iranian oil returning to the international market and the risk of economic recession provide the basis for the change of OPEC + production control policy of oil producing countries. It is reported that the production reduction of OPEC+ led by Saudi Arabia may be implemented simultaneously with the lifting of the Iranian oil embargo.
Industrial analysis: from the macro perspective, China's central bank's interest rate cut has a boosting effect on the investment market. On the supply side, at present, the domestic and foreign markets are in the seasonal peak season of glue production. It is reported that the export price of Thai glue is low, the output of domestic production areas is relatively normal, and the market fluctuates in a small range. At the import and export end, in July, China's imports of natural rubber (including latex and mixed rubber) increased by more than 10% on a month on month basis, with an obvious increase in arrival. On the inventory side, as of last Friday (August 19), the rubber inventory of the exchange rose by nearly 500 tons. On the demand side, the inventory of finished tire products continued to be high, and the export and domestic sales volume decreased. In addition, under the influence of the current high temperature and extreme weather, the power supply was limited in many places. The operating rate of tire enterprises dropped significantly, and the overall operation of the industry was limited.
Market forecast: in the near future, the macro market has a certain driving effect. From the perspective of industry, the high temperature weather has an obvious and continuous effect on the start-up of enterprises. Although the automobile promotion policy has a promoting effect on the market, the natural rubber will still maintain a small range of fluctuations in the future in the case of strong supply and weak demand and no obvious improvement in downstream demand.
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