Price data

As of August 28, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining hydrogenated naphtha was 8,260.00 yuan / ton, up 1.85% from 8,110.00 yuan / ton on August 22. The actual transaction price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha was about 8,200-8,300 yuan / ton.

As of August 28, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 8,087.50 yuan / ton, up 2.18% from 7,915.00 yuan / ton on August 22. The actual transaction price of local refining straight run naphtha was about 8,000-8,100 yuan / ton.

On August 28, the naphtha commodity index was 101.94, which was the same as the previous day, down 16.20% from the highest point 121.64 (2022-03-10) in the cycle and up 141.34% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2012 to now)

Analysis of influencing factors

Last week, the price of local refined naphtha increased, and the inventory of refineries was general. Affected by the high price of gasoline and diesel, the price continued to rise, but the demand for terminal ethylene cracking was general.

Upstream: international crude oil prices fluctuated and rose. According to the data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, the stocks of crude oil and refined oil fell last week; At the same time, the market is still worried about the remarks made by the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) on the possibility of simultaneous production reduction after the return of Iranian oil to the market. The oil price is supported in the short term, and it is expected that the price of finished oil may rise in the later period.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business agency, toluene rose last week. On August 28, the price was 7,640 yuan / ton, and on August 22, the price was 7,520 yuan / ton, up 1.60%. Last week, the price of mixed xylene increased slightly. On August 28, the price was 7,980 yuan / ton, and on August 22, the price was 7,960 yuan / ton, up 0.25%. In the PX market, the market price trend of paraxylene was stable last week. By the end of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 9,000 yuan / ton.

Market forecast

Last week, the international crude oil price surged, the naphtha market cost was supported, the terminal ethylene cracking continued to suffer losses, the terminal demand was not significantly favorable, and the market was cautious to catch up. However, due to the high gasoline and diesel prices, the naphtha market price rose. It is expected that China local refined naphtha may rise slightly in the near future.

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