Price trend

According to the data of SunSirs, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market on August 30 was 18,573.33 RMB/ton, a daily decrease of 2.11%, compared with the market average price of 18,316.67 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month (8.1), an increase of 1.40%, and compared with the average market price of 20,390 RMB/ton in the same period last year, a decrease of 11.68%.

Taking the peak in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots is 24,240 RMB/ton, and the recent deviation from the peak has dropped by 23.38%. Starting from the recent recovery (July 14, 2022), the average market price of aluminum ingots is 17,450 RMB/ton, and the recent recovery has risen by 6.44%.

Analysis review

In terms of news, the recent rainfall in Sichuan has increased the water storage capacity of the reservoir groups. Although the actual recovery of hydropower generation remains to be seen, it will alleviate the power consumption pressure in the early stage to a certain extent, and the impact of the overall high temperature power curtailment on the upstream and downstream of the aluminum industry chain is expected to weaken.

Judging from the outbound data, the outbound volume in mainstream areas last week was around 150,000 tons, a slight decrease from the previous month, and downstream demand was relatively weak.

On the macro side, affected by inflation in Europe and the United States, the recent Fed and the European Central Bank are expected to raise interest rates, and these factors have led to the weakening of aluminum price support.

Market outlook

On the whole, the macro tightening has suppressed the aluminum price, but the reduction of aluminum supply and the relatively low inventory have supported the aluminum price, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. The market outlook needs to pay attention to downstream consumption and social inventory.

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