Price trend

As can be seen from the above picture, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region has twists and turns this month. This month, the average ex-factory price of calcium carbide manufacturers in the northwest region rose from 3,900.00 RMB/ton on August 1 to 4,050.00 RMB/ton on August 8, an increase of 3.85%. Then started the falling mode, and it fell to 3600.00 RMB/ton on August 24, a decrease of 11.11%. At the end of the last month, there was a slight increase, an increase of 2.78%, a year-on-year decrease of 32.11%.

On August 29, the calcium carbide commodity index was 96.94, an increase of 1.31 points from previous day, a decrease of 54.32% from the highest point in the cycle of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 74.70% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to the present)

Analysis review

From the perspective of manufacturers' quotations, the ex-factory prices of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in the northwest region fell slightly this month: the price of calcium carbide at the end of the month in Ovigan was 3,700 RMB/ton, compared with the beginning of the month, the price dropped by 300 RMB/ton; Wuhai Zhonglian's price of calcium carbide at the end of the month was 3,650 RMB/ton, compared with the beginning of the month, the price dropped by 250 RMB/ton; Ningxia Xingping’s plant was overhauled.

From the weekly K-column chart of calcium carbide, the price of calcium carbide fell slightly in August, with the largest decline in the third week, down 7%.

Judging from the upstream and downstream market conditions, the price of calcium carbide upstream semi-coke was temporarily stable this month. This month, the price of calcium carbide downstream PVC market fluctuated and fell. This month, the PVC market price fell from 6,775.71 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 6,510.00 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.92%, and a decrease of 30.19% compared with the same period last year. The ex-factory price of 1,4-butanediol dropped sharply this month. The ex-factory price of 1,4-butanediol fell from 12,420.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 10,175.00 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 18.08%. On the whole, the downstream market of calcium carbide fell sharply this month, and the downstream's enthusiasm for calcium carbide purchases weakened, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Market outlook

In mid-to-early September, the calcium carbide market may rebound slightly, mainly due to finishing. The price of upstream raw material semi-coke has risen slightly recently, and the cost support of calcium carbide is well. The downstream 1,4 butanediol and PVC market fell sharply, and the downstream demand weakened. The market outlook predicts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate slightly in the first ten days of September, and the consolidation will be the mainstay.

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