Price trend

According to the data of SunSirs, the average price of the silver market in the early trading on August 31 was 4,190 RMB/kg, a daily decrease of 1.20%. Compared with the beginning of the month (August 1), the average morning price of the spot market price was 4,432.67 RMB/kg, a decrease of 5.47%; compared with the early trading average price of the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1) of 4,770 RMB/kg, a decrease of 12.16%.

On August 31, the spot market price of gold was 386.89 RMB/gram, a daily decrease of 0.74%, compared with the early trading average price of the spot market price at the beginning of the month (August 1) of 381.93 RMB/gram, an increase of 1.30%; compared with the early morning average price of the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1) of 372.37 RMB/kg, an increase of 3.90%.

Analysis review

From a long-term perspective, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different. In August, silver fell deeply, while gold prices were relatively stable.

macro policy

1. Domestic policy

The domestic LPR was lowered, and the domestic macro policy was relatively stable.

2. International Policy

The probability of a hawkish Fed raising interest rates in September has increased, the European economy has been hit hard by energy, and the German and French manufacturing PMI indexes continued to fall below the 50th percentile in August, which is not optimistic.

Market outlook

Hawkish remarks on U.S. monetary policy are frequent, and expectations for a rate hike in September have risen. Interest rate hikes in Europe and the United States are expected to suppress recent precious metal prices, and it is expected that precious metal prices will mainly run weak in the short term.

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