Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex-factory price of 2-EH in Shandong fluctuated and rose this month. The price of 2-EH rose from 8,100.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 9,133.33 RMB/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 12.76%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell by 47.41% year-on-year.

On August 30, the 2-EH commodity index was 65.69, an increase of 3.19 points from previous day, a decrease of 52.23% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 86.88% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 01, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to the present)

Analysis review

From the perspective of manufacturers' quotations, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of 2-EH in Shandong rose slightly this month, and the inventory of manufacturers was average. Lihuayi’s 2-EH was quoted at 9,000 RMB/ton at the end of the month, which was an increase of 1,000 RMB/ton compared with the beginning of the month; Jianlan Chemical's 2-EH plant was under maintenance; Hualu Hengsheng's 2-EH at the end of the month quoted 9,400 RMB/ton, compared with the beginning of the month, the price increased by 1,100 RMB/ton.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the upstream propylene market fell first and then rose this month. The price of propylene first fell from 7,348.60 RMB/ton on August 1 to 6,834.60 RMB/ton on August 24, a decrease of 6.99%, and then rose again. As of August 31, it was 7118.60 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.16%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.10% compared with the same period last year. Cost support was general. Downstream DOP prices rose slightly. The price of DOP rose from 8,925.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 10,075.00 RMB/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 12.89%, and a year-on-year decrease of 31.87% compared with the same period last year. Downstream sentiment rose slightly, and downstream customers were more motivated to purchase 2-EH. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a positive impact on the price of 2-EH this month.

Market outlook

In mid-to-early September, the domestic 2-EH market may fluctuate and rise slightly, mainly finishing. The price of upstream propylene rose slightly at the end of the month, and the cost support was better. The downstream DOP market rose slightly, and there was still an upward trend at the end of the month. The downstream manufacturers are more motivated to purchase 2-EH, and the product trend is rising under the contradiction between supply and demand. The 2-EH analyst of SunSirs believes that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short term, the domestic 2-EH market may fluctuate slightly and rise.

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