Price data

According to the data of SunSirs, in August, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major local refiners was 4,082.50 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the month and 4,114.00 RMB/ ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 31.50 RMB/ ton within the month and a monthly increase of 0.77%.

On August 30, the petroleum coke commodity index was 319.98, which was the same as the previous day, down 21.71% from the highest point 408.70 in the cycle (May 11, 2022), and up 378.37% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 till now)

Analysis of influencing factors

Products: in August, the price of locally refined petroleum coke fluctuated and rose. At the beginning of August, downstream carbon enterprises actively purchased petroleum coke. The inventory of petroleum coke in refineries was low, and the price of petroleum coke in some refineries rose; In the middle of August, the film was limited, the market of electrolytic aluminum was weak, the market was mainly based on demand, and the price of petroleum coke in the refinery was down; In late August, the shipment of the refinery improved, the inventory was low, the downstream procurement was based on demand, and the price of petroleum coke in the refinery increased.

Upstream: in August, the trend of international crude oil prices declined, and the decline of crude oil prices was mainly due to the large decline in the middle and early August. On the one hand, the pessimistic view of the recent economic recession dominated the market, and the economic data were generally weak, which once again triggered the market's concern about the global economic recession. In addition, the market was waiting for the results of the negotiations on the resumption of the Iranian nuclear agreement, and the supply tension was expected to ease, which made the international oil price under pressure. Finally, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), within six months after the resumption of the Iran nuclear agreement, Iran is expected to increase its additional capacity by about 1.3 million barrels per day, which is also a reversal of the market's view on the supply tightening expectation and a decline in the trend of international oil prices. The international oil price rebounded in late August. On the one hand, the US inventory data supported it. In addition, on Thursday, the economic data released by the U.S. Department of labor showed strong performance, and the demand for refined oil was still strong, diluting the worries about the slowdown in fuel demand caused by the risk of economic recession.

Downstream: Calcined coke price decreased slightly in August; Metal silicon market fell after rising; The downstream electrolytic aluminum market fluctuated. As of August 31, the price was 18,453.33 RMB/ ton; Downstream carbon enterprises mainly purchase on demand.

Market forecast

SunSirs petroleum coke analyst predicted that: the international crude oil in August fluctuated downward, and the cost support of petroleum coke was limited; At the end of the month, the inventory of the local refining enterprises was low, the petroleum coke shipment was good, and the downstream procurement was active at the end of the month. It is expected that the price of geo refined petroleum coke will remain stable in China in the near future.

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