Price trend
According to the data monitored by SunSirs, the spot market price of PVC SG5 fell in August. On August 1, the average price of domestic PVC was 6,775.71 RMB/ ton, and on August 31, the average price was 6,467.14 RMB/ ton. The price fell by 4.55% in the month.
Market analysis
In August, the market price of PVC carbide SG5 fluctuated, and the overall trend was mainly downward. In the first ten days of August, the PVC market price mainly fell due to shocks, the market was relatively light, and traders' enthusiasm for taking goods was not high. In the middle of August, the price continued to fall, due to the release of real estate data from January to July. Most of the data fell. Affected by this, the confidence of PVC market was obviously insufficient, the market situation weakened, and the sales of goods holders were under pressure. Since late August, the price of PVC futures market has risen first, and the spot market has followed up with the improvement. Traders' enthusiasm for taking goods has been improved, and orders have been received more actively. The market transaction atmosphere is OK. The futures price fell at the low end of the month, the focus of the spot market fell, and the price decreased slightly. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic PVC -5 electric stone is mostly around 6,050-6,600 RMB/ ton.
In terms of international crude oil, on August 30, international crude oil futures fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $91.64/ barrel, down US $5.37 or 5.5%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $97.84/ barrel, down US $5.09 or 4.9%. As OPEC's second largest crude oil exporter, the turmoil in Iraq has not affected crude oil exports, and it is rumored that Iran's nuclear agreement is expected to be reached. In addition, the market is generally worried that in order to combat inflation, the global central bank's interest rate increase will lead to economic recession, which will then affect fuel demand and put pressure on oil prices.
In terms of calcium carbide, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China this month has experienced ups and downs. This month, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China first rose from 3,900.00 RMB/ ton on August 1 to 4,050.00 RMB/ ton on August 8, an increase of 3.85%. Then, it opened the falling mode and fell to 3,600.00 RMB/ ton on August 24, down 11.11%. At the end of the last month, there was a slight increase of 2.78%, a year-on-year decrease of 32.11%. Judging from the upstream and downstream market conditions, the price of calcium carbide upstream blue carbon is temporarily stable this month. This month, the downstream PVC market price of calcium carbide fluctuated and fell, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm for calcium carbide weakened, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide. In the later market, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly in mid to early September, mainly for consolidation.
Market forecast
SunSirs PVC analysts believe that the current PVC futures market has fallen slightly, affecting the confidence of the spot market and the transaction status of the spot market is poor. At present, the peak season real estate completion cycle is approaching, and it is expected that the demand in September will improve to a certain extent. In the short term, the PVC market is still dominated by range fluctuation in China.
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