Price trend
Since late August, the domestic market price of PA produced by OX method has risen sharply. As of the 22nd, the quotation of PA produced by OX method was 10,300 RMB/ton, with a monthly increase of 27.16%. The sharp rise in prices was mainly due to the combined effect of tight supply and cost support.
Analysis review
Supply side: equipment maintenance led to tight supply
Recently, the supply of goods in the PA market has been tight, and some domestic devices have been overhauled. The 120,000-ton PA plant in Tongling, Anhui was shut down for maintenance for about a month, and the 100,000-ton PA plant of Xinyang Group was shut down, and it is expected to restart after the National Day. Affected by the maintenance equipment, the domestic operating rate of PA fell to below 50%. Domestic spot supply of PA was tight, and the price trend of PA on the market rose sharply. The market price of PA in East China was 10,200-10,400 RMB/ton, and the mainstream price of PA in North China was 10,100-10,300 RMB/ton.
Cost side: the price of raw material OX rose sharply
Since late August, the price of OX has risen sharply. As of September 22, the price of OX was 9,000 RMB/ton, with a monthly increase of 12.5%. According to the feedback from the manufacturers, the supply of raw material OX was in short supply recently, the OX manufacturers were not operating enough, and more factories were shut down for maintenance, and it was difficult for the PA manufacturers to find supply. Zhenhai Refinery's 160,000-ton/year OX unit has gradually reduced its load at the end of August and is expected to be overhauled for 3 months; Fuhai Chuang's 240,000-ton/year OX unit has been shut down since the end of June; Luoyang Petrochemical's 40,000-ton/year OX plant was shut down. In addition, the import volume of OX was small, and the main port inventory dropped to 8,000 tons. The supply of OX was tight, restricting the production of PA manufacturers. In addition, the price of OX rose sharply. Supported by favorable cost factors, the market of PA rose sharply.
Demand side: the market for plasticizers improved, and the price of DOP soared
The downstream DOP market price trend of PA rose. As of the 22nd, the domestic DOP price was 10,280 RMB/ton, a monthly increase of 13.59%. Domestic DOP enterprises started to start up, and the demand for PA increased. The mainstream price of DOP was 10,200-10,400 RMB/ton. The rise in the downstream market is a positive support for the PA market, and the price of PA rose sharply.
Market outlook
Recently, the destocking of OX in the port has continued, and domestic OX manufacturers have been overhauled more frequently. In the short term, the supply of OX has continued to be tight. The downstream plasticizer industry has improved, and the actual demand has increased compared with before. Coupled with the tight supply of PA, the positive factors still exist, and the market price of PA may still rise in the later period.
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