According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the price of steam coal was strong last week. On September 22, the energy index was 1,151 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 26.27% from the peak of 1,561 points (2021-10-21) in the cycle, and up 125.24% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

In terms of production area, affected by the epidemic situation and safety production reduction, most coal mines now provide long-term coal, and the market supply is still tight. The supply is reduced, the market trading atmosphere is fair, and the coal price is strongly supported.

In terms of downstream ports, the price is mostly strong. Because the National Day holiday is coming, enterprises are actively stocking up, and the supply of coal falls short of demand. In addition, the overhaul of Daqin Line still has strong support for the rise of coal prices.

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, the national coal price had risen slightly (from September 12 to 18), including 1,463 RMB/ yuan, 939 RMB/yuan and 1,469 RMB/yuan for No. 2 smokeless lump coal, steam coal and coking coal, up 1.0%, 0.9% and 0.1% respectively.

SunSirs analysts believe that: the production of steam coal in the origin area is affected by the safety inspection and epidemic situation, the coal output has declined, and the coal supply is tight. In terms of downstream ports, most of them are strong. Due to the influence of goods preparation before the festival, the downstream users' quotations are relatively firm. However, considering the impact of superimposed policies, it is expected that China thermal coal prices will mainly fluctuate, depending on the downstream market demand.

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