Price trend
According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the stainless steel price rose first and then consolidated at a high level in September. At the beginning of the month, the stainless steel price was 14,562.86 RMB/ton. At the end of the month, the stainless steel price rose to 15,598.57 RMB/ton, with an overall increase of 7.11% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.01%.
According to the data of SunSirs, in September, the upstream nickel price was basically similar to the spot price of stainless steel, and the nickel price had a relatively large change.
Analysis review
According to the data from SunSirs, the upstream of stainless steel, except for scrap steel, showed an upward trend. Nickel rose as much as stainless steel, while iron ore rose less. The upstream nickel, due to tight supply this month, the downstream stainless steel demand improved, and the price rose.
The stainless steel industry chain has been repaired this month. The output in September is expected to be 2.5914 million tons, an increase of 13.72% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 16.49%, both year-on-year and month-on-month increased. The gradual release of new production capacity in Indonesia, coupled with the slower-than-expected recovery of domestic real estate, has suppressed ferronickel prices under the influence of two factors.
In September, the overall stainless steel inventory was low. As of the end of the month, stainless steel inventory totaled 717,000 tons.
Market outlook
To sum up: In September, the output of steel mills increased, upstream nickel prices rose, and downstream demand rebounded. In the traditional peak season in October, there is an expectation of resumption of production and demand is supported to a certain extent, but the overall economic environment is still sluggish. It is expected that the price of stainless steel in October may be comparable to that in September, mainly with fluctuations at high levels.
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