Price trend

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the market price of phosphorus yellow in Yunnan and Guizhou rose this month. The average price of phosphorus yellow at the beginning of the month was 32,000 RMB/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 36,375 RMB/ton. The price rose during the month by 13.67%.

Analysis review

The market price of phosphorus yellow rose this month. The market trading situation is acceptable. The stocking before the National Day has been basically completed, the market is currently watching, and the actual transaction is more cautious. Most manufacturers suspended external quotations, most of which were based on a single negotiation. As of the 28th, the mainstream price of phosphorus yellow in Yunnan was around 36,000-37,000 RMB/ton; the mainstream price of phosphorus yellow in Sichuan was around 36,000 RMB/ton; the mainstream price of phosphorus yellow in Guizhou was around 36,500 RMB/ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, the overall performance of the domestic phosphate rock market remained stable. At the beginning of September, the domestic market for medium and high-end phosphate rock fell slightly, and the price of phosphate rock in some mining companies was reduced by 10-20 RMB/ton nearby. At the beginning of the month, the main reason for the weakening of the phosphate rock market was that the terminal demand in the downstream phosphate fertilizer market was general, which affected the mentality of the industry and gave loose support to the demand side of phosphate rock, and the overall market sentiment turned weaker than at the end of August. At present, as the National Day holiday is approaching, logistics and transportation have also been suspended one after another. The news in the phosphate rock field is relatively calm as a whole. The phosphate rock data engineer of SunSirs believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate rock market will continue to run steadily, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the news changes on the supply and demand side.

In terms of coke, in September 2022, the coke market has undergone a round of improvement and decline. As of the 28th, the price of quasi-grade metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2,500 RMB/ton, and the price at the beginning of the month was 2,600 RMB/ton, a monthly decrease of 3.85%. On the whole, with the rising price of coking coal, the cost of coking enterprises has continued to rise, and some coking enterprises have begun to lose money. Recently, the profitability of steel mills has improved to a certain extent, and the overall market has fluctuated upwards. At present, Jiaozuo Iron and Steel Group has a strong game mentality. In the future, it is expected that the coke price will remain stable and strong, focusing on the sales of downstream finished products and the impact of the coking coal market trend on coke prices.

In terms of demand, the market price of phosphoric acid rose in July. The average price of phosphoric acid at the beginning of the month was 8,860 RMB/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 10,140 RMB/ton. The price rose during the month by 14.45%. This month, the market was affected by the upstream market, and the market price of phosphoric acid rose as a whole. Near the end of the month, the phosphoric acid market rose back down. It is expected that the market price of phosphoric acid will temporarily stabilize and consolidate in the short term.

Market outlook

The phosphorus yellow analyst of SunSirs believes that the price of phosphorus yellow rose this month. The price of upstream phosphate rock was adjusted at a high level, and the overall downstream phosphoric acid market was mainly up. Recently, there have been reports of power cuts in some areas in Yunnan, and there have been continuous rumors of power cuts in Guizhou and Sichuan, which are good for the phosphorus yellow market. The overall confidence in the phosphorus yellow market is acceptable. It is expected that the phosphorus yellow market will consolidate at a high level in the short term.

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