1. Price trend

In November 2019, the domestic market of 1# lead ingot fell. The average price in the domestic market was 16,506.25RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 15,700RMB/ton at the end of the month, down 4.88%.

On November 30, the Lead Commodity Index was 95.55, the same as that of November 29, 28.70% lower than the peak of 134.01 in the cycle (Nov 29, 2016), and 28.03% higher than the lowest point of 74.63 (Mar 19, 2015). (Cycle: Sep 1, 2011 to date)、

2. Market analysis

Domestic market: in this month, PBD, PB and spot market all showed downward trends. By the end of the month, the main trading range of the spot market was 15,550-15,800RMB/ton, with a monthly decline of 4.88%. As the spot market continued to decline and the price difference between recycled lead further narrowed, many manufacturers turned to purchase primary lead this month. The spot market trading situation had a certain improvement over last month. However, the downstream battery enterprises are not clear, and the purchase intention is limited. Therefore, the market supply is still sufficient. As of the end of the month, the manufacturer's shipping sentiment was general, mainly based on long-term single transaction. As of the end of the month, the mainstream quotation of domestic lead general brand was 50RMB/ton from the average to the premium of 1912 contract. Market brands of lead include Shanghai Jinsha, South China, Mulun, Henan wanyang, Minshan, Yuguang, Jinli, Guangdong Nanhua lead, etc. in Henan area, long single transactions are the most common, while small single transactions are found in the market.

Supply and demand: on November 19, Lisbon, data released by the international lead zinc research group (ILZSG) showed that the supply gap in the global lead market increased to 41,000 tons in September, and 26,800 tons in August. In the first nine months of this year, the supply gap of global lead market expanded to 83,000 tons, compared with 34,000 tons in the same period last year.

Major domestic events:

Centralized collection of waste lead-acid batteries in Shanxi pilot project: the reporter learned from the Department of ecological environment of Shanxi province that the implementation plan for the pilot project of centralized collection and trans regional transfer system of waste lead-acid batteries in Shanxi Province was recently printed and issued, in which a series of measures were proposed to strive to achieve a standardized recovery rate of more than 40% of waste lead-acid batteries in the province by 2020. The pilot units are divided into two categories. The first category is the lead-acid battery production enterprises in the province, the lead-acid battery production enterprises outside the province with registered branches in Shanxi Province and a certain market share; the second category is the enterprises holding the hazardous waste operation license in the province and the operation category includes the waste lead-acid battery.

International Battery Innovation Association: in the next few years, lead-acid battery is still the mainstream. Previously, Yang Yusheng, academician of the Chinese Academy of engineering, delivered a keynote speech on the root cause of frequent spontaneous combustion of electric vehicles. According to Mr.Yang, a large number of lithium-ion batteries are piled up, which is the main cause of spontaneous combustion. It is suggested that low-speed electric vehicles should use lead-acid batteries for safety reasons.

Industry: U.S. economic data is good. Powell said in the Federal Reserve's beige book that he is optimistic about the U.S. economic expectations. The U.S. stock market has set a new record, but the high U.S. dollar also suppresses the basic metals.

3. Future prospects

In December, European and American data sets will have a certain impact on market confidence and the dollar index. In the near future, the fund tolerance is high and the performance is loose. The domestic basic metals may be in the final rush active state before the end of the year. It is expected that the spot tin market will mainly fluctuate in the situation of unchanged supply and demand. In terms of lead market, with the improvement of automobile battery replacement in December, the market turnover may be improved, and lead price may be improved.

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