According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the price of coniferous wood pulp will keep rising in September 2022, while the price of hardwood pulp will rise first and then fall. On September 29, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong was 7,556 RMB/ ton, up 4.36% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (on September 1, the average market price was 7,240 RMB/ ton). On September 29, the average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong was 6,720 RMB/ ton, down 0.15% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (on September 1, the average market price was 6,730 RMB/ ton).
From the observation of market changes, the spot price of wood pulp rose rapidly in the first ten days of September. At the beginning of the month, the price of pulp futures 09 contract rose a record, driving the spot price upward. Due to the weakening of shipping volume in the international mainstream market, the superimposition of the high price of the external market and the decline of the RMB exchange rate, the high cost supports the high price of wood pulp. Then the stock accumulation of domestic mainstream ports occurred again, and the arrival and impact of domestic typhoon made the arrival of pulp slightly slow, which boosted the pulp price.
In late September, spot prices of coniferous and hardwood pulp both declined slightly. The price decline was mostly affected by the decline of pulp futures prices, and spot prices followed the correction. At present, the stock of paper pulp is low. In July, the stock of wood pulp at ports in Europe fell below 1 million tons, and the low level of domestic stock fluctuated narrowly. The continuous decline of the RMB exchange rate has driven up the cost of wood pulp imports.
In September, under the condition of macro weakness, the future market demand was not very optimistic. The downstream paper mills basically purchased on demand, and the trading atmosphere was flat. The operating rate of domestic paper mills is relatively average, the profitability of paper mills has not improved much, and weak demand has suppressed the pulp price, so the spot market has a strong wait-and-see mood. However, there are still some areas in China that are affected by the epidemic situation and the shipping is not smooth, which leads to slow shipping of paper enterprises. The phenomenon of production reduction and production change of paper enterprises has increased. The manufacturers maintain the purchase on demand, and the willingness to replenish is low. As the current situation of high price and low demand continues, the price center of the spot market has loosened.
In terms of futures, on September 29, the opening price of the main contract of the pulp futures SP2301 of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 6,816 RMB/ ton, the latest price was 6,774 RMB/ ton, the transaction was 162,500, and the position was 189,157 hands.
SunSirs wood pulp analysts believe that the current high spot price of wood pulp fluctuates, which makes the downstream paper enterprises have light demand for raw materials, less enthusiasm for purchasing, little improvement in the profits of paper mills, and no obvious recovery in the operating rate. However, the tight supply of imported wood pulp has played a supporting role in the pulp price. It is expected that the short-term spot price of wood pulp may continue to fluctuate at a high level in China.
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