Price trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the price of viscose staple fiber continued to fall in September. As of September 30, 2022, the ex factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 13,840 RMB/ton, 1,020 RMB/ton lower than the price at the beginning of the month, with a monthly drop of 6.86%.

The price of rayon yarn followed the decline. As of September 30, 2022 (30S, ring spinning, first class), the average ex factory price was 18,166 RMB/ton, showing a situation of price without market. Compared with the price at the beginning of the month, the price fell by nearly 500 RMB/ton, with a monthly drop of 2.50%.

Analysis review

In September, the domestic viscose staple fiber ran in a weak position, and the price center continued to fall, down 1,000 RMB/ton. It is hard to find a good situation on the demand side. There is a strong atmosphere of bearishness in the market, and it is difficult to improve the trading of human cotton yarn. It is transmitted to the general enthusiasm for raw material procurement and the main demand for replenishment. In late September, the price of dissolved pulp in the outer disk was lowered, and the cost support of viscose staple fiber was loosened, further promoting the price center of viscose staple fiber to go down a step.

In September, with the price adjustment of viscose staple fiber, the upstream raw material, declining, the trading of rayon yarn continued to be cold, and the price also showed a downward trend. The market still had the performance of selling goods at reduced prices. In the case of weak demand, it was difficult to stimulate the downstream to receive goods. The market trading atmosphere was light and difficult to change. Enterprises negotiated with each other on actual orders for shipment, and most deals were based on rigid demand.

Inventory and demand

The start-up rate of viscose staple fiber industry remained low, with the overall load of about 55%. The overall low startup might continue under the manufacturer's deficit operation. In terms of demand, the start-up rate of downstream cotton yarn enterprises was basically stable. Some regions still sold cotton yarn at low prices, but the actual transaction situation had not changed. The downstream still maintained the level of just in demand procurement, and the inventory of human cotton yarn enterprises rose by a narrow margin. The downstream orders of rayon yarn were not as expected, the terminal demand showed no signs of improvement, the willingness to take goods was not high in the short term, and the demand side continued to operate weakly.

Market outlook

The price of raw material dissolving pulp and chemical materials declined, and the cost support of viscose staple fiber was looser than that in the early stage. In terms of demand, the weak market situation was difficult to ease, and enterprise operations still focused on priority shipping. The downward transfer of viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn inventory was blocked, the market was pessimistic, and the possibility of downward adjustment remained after the festival. Downstream expectations for gold September and silver October were also relatively disappointed, and they were pessimistic about the future market. The analysts of SunSirs predict that the viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn industry chain will continue to operate in a weak position, and the possibility of their prices continuing to fall still exists.

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