In 2022, the palm oil market experienced a roller coaster ride. After the surge, the market jumped over 63% in the first four months, with the highest price of 16,100 yuan/ton, a record high. Since May, it has been falling for five months, with a drop of more than 53%.

According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, after New Year's Day, affected by the reduction of Malaysian palm oil production, the oil market in the external market rose strongly, while the domestic palm oil rose with the market, and the price soared all the way up to the end of April, with the highest price reaching 16,100 yuan/ton, breaking historical records. Since May, the palm oil market has plunged, and the price has fallen for five months, until September 30, from a high of 16,100 yuan to 7,500 yuan, with a 50% reduction in price.

According to the monthly rise and fall of palm oil from January to September in 2022, palm oil fell for five consecutive months from May, with the largest drop in June.

From January to September 2022, palm oil started to rise for two consecutive months, and in February it rose nearly 20%. In March, it fell by nearly 8%. In April, it rebounded from the bottom, with the highest increase in the first nine months, more than 32%. The decline began in May for five consecutive months. In addition to the largest decline in June, the decline in palm oil in September also exceeded 16%.

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, since May, the palm oil market has begun to show weakness, and the price has fluctuated downward. In June, the price continued to fall and the platform dived. In the whole of June, the decline was the largest, with a decline of more than 26%. In the third quarter, palm oil continued to be weak, with the overall decline of more than 30%. By the end of September, the price of palm oil had dropped to 7,500 yuan/ton, more than 8,600 yuan/ton lower than that in early May.

The main reason for the market falling for 5 months is that Malaysia's palm oil has entered the production increase cycle, and the palm oil inventory has been rising, which is dominated by bad news. The palm oil market has continued to fall.

The rise and fall of palm oil market is also closely related to the trend of palm oil inventory. Since May, one of the main reasons for the sharp decline of palm oil market is the continuous decline of inventory. As of September 27, palm oil has been at the highest point in the year, breaking through 520,000 tons.

After the New Year's Day, during the Spring Festival, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased, imports decreased, and terminal oil demand increased. The domestic palm oil port inventory continued to decline, falling to June, from 600,000 tons in January to 240,000 tons. Due to the negative external market, although palm oil inventories were low in June, it was still difficult to prevent a sharp decline. Since July, the palm oil inventory has been rising, and has been increasing. By September 27, the domestic palm oil inventory had reached 525,000 tons, returning to a high level. The inventory pressure has increased, and the external market is dominated by bad news. The palm oil market continues to decline, with a decline of more than 30%.

SunSirs agricultural product analyst believes that the fourth quarter is the peak season for traditional oil consumption. With the increase of terminal consumption demand, the pressure on palm oil storage has eased, and the bad luck has been exhausted, palm oil is expected to rise in the future in China.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.