Price trend

In September, the domestic polyester staple fiber prices showed a small upward trend in shock. According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market on September 30 was 7,926 RMB/ton, 2.81%% higher than the price of 7,710 at the beginning of the month, up 7.94% year on year. In the futures market, the staple fiber contract at the end of the month closed at 7,152 RMB/ton (settlement price 7,148 RMB/ton), down 4.23% from the beginning of the month.

Analysis review

Industrial chain:

1. In September, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points and repeated outbreaks depressed the demand for crude oil, and international crude oil prices fell. By the end of September, the settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures had been 82.15 dollars/barrel, down 8.26% for the whole month.

2. In September, the maintenance and restart of domestic PTA plants coexisted, and the output increased slightly. However, it was still in a tight balance, the pattern of social inventory reduction continued, and the current supply of goods in the spot market was still tight. In September, the domestic PTA spot market rose first and then fell.

3. In September, the overall operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol remained relatively low, and the capacity utilization rate was about 50%. The price of ethylene glycol was low in the early stage, which brought about a slight improvement in the price after the supply contraction this month. However, some devices are planned to restart in the near future, and the supply is expected to recover at a low level.

4. In September, the domestic pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn market continued to be light, the market price was basically stable, and the downstream orders were lacking. With the impact of cost decline, the price fell slightly near the end of the month.

Supply and demand:

In September, the polyester staple fiber unit was overhauled more frequently, and the supply was reduced. The downstream also entered the traditional peak season of the year. The starting load of the yarn mill and textile mill increased, and the demand improved month on month. Affected by typhoon weather and epidemic prevention and control this month, the logistics transportation was blocked in the short term, the available goods for spot circulation were tight, and the spot price of staple fiber rose slightly throughout the month, showing a significantly stronger trend than futures

Market outlook

Analysts from SunSirs believe that the recent rise in geopolitical tensions, coupled with hurricane weather, has led to a temporary reduction in crude oil supply in the US Gulf, boosting the rebound in oil prices, and strengthening the cost end support of polyester staple fiber. In October, the textile terminals may gradually turn to the peak season, the operating rate is expected to rise, and the demand may improve. With the restart of the unit after maintenance and the implementation of new production capacity, the supply pressure of polyester staple fiber may increase in October. It is expected that polyester staple fiber will show a strong trend of shock in October. Pay attention to changes in crude oil prices, plant restart and downstream orders.

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