Price trend

According to the data of SunSirs, the average price of ethylene glycol was 4,383.33 RMB/ton on October 11, down 1.87% from the previous trading day and down28.61% year on year.

Analysis review

On the 11th, the price of ethylene glycol in East China, the mainstream consumer, dropped significantly, and some traders quoted 4,150-4,300 RMB/ton. According to market news, Zhangjiagang, the buyer picked up the goods by himself, the contract price this week was 4,125 RMB/ton, and the contract price in late October was 4,150 RMB/ton. The external quotation of large manufacturers was relatively firm, and some were slightly reduced.

During the National Day, the CIF spot price in Southeast Asia fell significantly; On the 11th, the domestic ethylene glycol price fell a lot, and the futures market suffered panic selling, which led to the linkage of spot prices. The main factors affecting the decline were: first, the expectation of the resumption of the ethylene glycol unit; Second, downstream demand contracted.

From the inventory data, the inventory of the main port began to accumulate slightly, and the inventory exceeded 850,000 tons on the 11th. After the festival, the downstream polyester demand was weak, and the delivery of Zhangjiagang and Taicang warehouses became weak.

Ethylene glycol industry chain: The domestic polyester operating rate was about 80%, but the downstream demand was weak. According to the production and marketing rate data, the production and marketing rate of polyester filament dropped to about 30-40%, the production and marketing rate of polyester chip dropped to about 30%, and the production and marketing rate of direct spinning polyester staple fiber factory dropped to about 20%. On the whole, polyester downstream customers were more resistant to the high price supply of the factory.

Market outlook

In the short term, there is a strong expectation of strong supply and weak demand, and the ethylene glycol market is expected to be dominated by weak consolidation in the future. In the future, pay attention to the continuity of the maintenance of coal chemical industry and the follow-up of the terminal orders.

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