- Price Trend
According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the glass price rose slightly last month. The average price of the glass at the beginning of the month was 20.6 RMB/m2, and the average price at the end of the month was 20.83 RMB/m2. The price rose within the week by 1.12%.
On November 28, the glass commodity index was 115.08, unchanged from the previous day, down 0.19% from the highest point 115.30 (2019-11-21) in the cycle, and up 54.76% from the lowest point 74.36 on February 16, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-10-16 to now)
- Market Analysis
Products: in November, the price fluctuation in Shahe area of North China was relatively obvious, and the price rise in the first ten days was relatively large, which increased the difficulty of Shahe glass export. In the last ten days, due to the influence of environmental protection supervision, the restrictions on road transportation increased, the enterprises' outbound was limited to a certain extent, and the prices of some manufacturers were lowered. The current market price trend is weak. The market demand in East China is good. In November, the glass price went up all the way. At present, the manufacturers mainly operate at a high price. South China market has a good trend. At present, changes in local production capacity have an impact on market confidence in the later period. In addition to the Xinyi production line in Beihai, Guangxi, which was ignited in the early stage, the production line in Fujian also has the intention to increase in the near future. At present, the operating rate of local processing enterprises is gradually reduced, and the purchase and sale of glass are gradually stopped. Therefore, the quotations of glass production enterprises in Northeast, northwest and southwest are relatively stable.
Capacity: according to the data of Industry Association, the capacity utilization rate of float glass on November 29, 2019 was 69.35%, up -0.53% month on month, up -1.82% year on year; after eliminating excess capacity, the capacity utilization rate of glass was 82.40%, up -0.64% month on month, up -2.72% year on year. The production capacity is 933.3 million heavy boxes, a month on month increase of -7.2 million heavy boxes, a year-on-year increase of -10.2 million heavy boxes. On November 29, 2019, the industry's inventory was 37.68 million heavy boxes, an increase of 580,000 million heavy boxes compared with the previous month, and an increase of 6.4 million heavy boxes compared with the previous year. The inventory days at the end of the month were 14.74 days, 0.34 days higher than the previous month, and 2.64 days higher than the previous month.
Industrial chain: last month, the starting load of soda ash manufacturers remained high, the downstream demand of domestic soda ash was limited, the oversupply market went down in price, and the price trend was mainly weak. By the end of the month, 1,530-1,700 RMB/ton for light alkali and 1,780-1,800 RMB/ton for heavy alkali.
- Market forecast
According to the prediction of SunSirs, the enterprise's stock up demand before the festival is favorable, the consumption in the southern region is fair, the overall supply pressure is not large, and the operation is mainly based on the firm price; however, the production enterprises in the northern region are affected by the environmental protection supervision, the stock out is not smooth, and the current market price trend is weak. On the whole, it is predicted that the glass price will still show the trend of interval fluctuation and agglutination in the short term, and the regional differentiation will continue.
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