Price trend

According to the nickel price monitoring of SunSirs, the nickel price fluctuated widely this week. As of October 14, spot nickel was quoted at 192,016.67 RMB/ton, up 0.17% from the previous trading day and up 33.21% year on year.

According to the weekly ups and downs chart of SunSirs, the nickel price rose 4 weeks and fell 7 weeks in the last 12 weeks, and remained flat in one week. Recently, the nickel price was still in a wide range of fluctuations.

Analysis review

On October 13, LME nickel inventory was 52,698 tons, 30 tons less than the previous day. In the last month, LME nickel inventory decreased by 702 tons, a decrease of 1.3%.

On the macro level, the IMF again lowered the global GDP growth forecast for next year. It is expected that the global GDP growth rate will decline from 6.0% in 2021 to 3.2% this year, and further to 2.7% in 2023. On Thursday evening, the latest US inflation data exceeded market expectations. The US announced that September's CPI was the focus of financial markets. In September, the CPI rose 8.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

In terms of supply and demand, nickel ore was affected by the rainy season in the Philippines, and the supply started to fall back. The price of nickel ore was firm, and the cost support was strong. In October, the stainless steel production scheduling plan rebounded, the commencement of downstream demand side stainless steel gradually rebounded, and the demand for ferronickel also increased. The economy of ferronickel still existed, so the demand was guaranteed. Therefore, supply and demand had supported nickel price.

Market outlook

In general, although the long-term fundamentals of nickel price are poor, the current supply and demand are supported, the macro level is empty, and the global economy slows down. It is expected that nickel price will maintain a wide range of shocks in the short term.

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