Price trend

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners fell this week. On October 16, the average price of petroleum coke in Shandong market was 4,039.00 RMB/ton, 1.52% lower than the price of 4,101.50 RMB/ton on October 10.

On October 16, the petroleum coke commodity index was 314.15 points, unchanged from the previous day, 23.13% lower than the cycle's highest point of 408.70 points (2022-05-11), and 369.65% higher than the lowest point of 66.89 points on March 28, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

Analysis review

This week, the refinery's petroleum coke shipments were average, the downstream demand was limited, and the price of petroleum coke fell.

Upstream: The international crude oil price fell. During the National Day, the 33rd Ministerial Conference of OPEC+decided to reduce the average daily output of OPEC+crude oil by 2 million barrels from the required daily output level in August 2022. Affected by the news of production reduction, the price of crude oil market rose by 15%, but the negative pressure on the economy was difficult to ease. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the risk of global economic recession was growing. The IMF lowered its economic growth forecast for next year, and crude oil prices fell for three days after the holiday. On Thursday, the US CPI data was released. Although it was higher than expected, the stock market rebounded strongly after falling, boosting risky assets such as crude oil. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data shows that diesel and heating oil inventories have declined significantly, overshadowing the negative impact of the increase in crude oil and gasoline inventories.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke rose slightly this week; The price of metal silicon market rose; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fluctuated. As of October 16, the price of electrolytic aluminum was 18,726.67 RMB/ton; Downstream carbon enterprises had a large number of goods in stock before the festival, which was still dominated by de stocking.

Market outlook

The oil coke analyst of SunSirs believes that: this week, the international crude oil shocked and declined, and the cost support of oil coke was limited; Downstream carbon enterprises had a large number of goods in stock before the festival, which was still dominated by de stocking. The refinery shipments were under pressure. Downstream procurement was mainly on demand, and the downstream had a strong wait-and-see mood. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke will continue to decline in the near future.

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