Price trend
According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the PAC commodity index on October 17 was 108.72, down 0.33 points from the precious day, down 23.78% from the cycle's highest point of 142.64 points (2021-11-01), and up 28.94% from the lowest point of 84.32 points on August 18, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now).
Analysis review
Spot goods: according to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the domestic solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) PAC market has fluctuated slightly since October, with a slight weakness. Among them, the main market quotation on October 1 was 2,043.75 RMB/ton, and the main market quotation on October 17 was 2,011.25 RMB/ton, down 1.59%. During the National Day, some logistics vehicles were restricted. The difficulty in finding vehicles and the increase in transportation costs had a certain impact on the PAC market, but the market was stable mainly because of the dull procurement; After the National Day, the market returned to normal. Since October 10, Gongyi, Henan, one of the main production areas, has stopped production due to environmental protection policy requirements, and logistics in some parts of the country has been affected by public health events. However, due to the continuous downturn in demand, sufficient spot stocks, it is difficult for enterprises to do business, and the mainstream market of PAC was mainly stable, with light weakness.
Raw hydrochloric acid: According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the domestic hydrochloric acid market in the first half of October fell from 166.67 RMB/ton to about 160 RMB/ton. According to the manufacturer's quotation, the price of hydrochloric acid in the domestic market has dropped slightly recently. From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the recent market of upstream liquid chlorine has been consolidated at a low level, with insufficient cost support; Downstream fluctuated in a narrow range at a low level, and the willingness of downstream to purchase was average. According to the analysis, the recent market of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate downward slightly.
LNG for production. According to the data of SunSirs, since October, the LNG market has declined 7.2% due to turbulence: the average price on the first day was 6,834 RMB/ton, and the average price on the 17th was 6,342 RMB/ton. During this period, the average price rose in the first ten days and fell in mid-October. After the National Day holiday, the transportation of dangerous chemicals returned to normal, and downstream replenishment increased. The price of LNG continued to rise under the favorable situation of demand follow-up. Due to the epidemic situation, transportation was limited in some regions, and the regional liquid price was higher, with obvious regional differences. The domestic LNG price began to fall around the 10th, and the demand for downstream replenishment turned weak. Influenced by the epidemic situation, the upstream shipping pressure was high, and the market continued to fall. It is expected that the price of LNG will be stable in the short term.
Market outlook
Gongyi, the main water treatment production area, has stopped production since the 10th of this month. The current public health event has a certain logistics impact. This year's water treatment market is lower than that of the same period in 2021. The demand is low and the spot inventory is sufficient, and the future market of PAC is still stable with weakness.
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