Price trend
Since October, the market of BR has declined weakly. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of October 18, the price of BR in China was 12,680 RMB/ton, down 2.61% from the price of 13,020 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. Recently, the ex factory price of BR of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased by 400 RMB/ton. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of October 18, the ex factory price of BR of PetroChina Northeast Sales Company had been quoted by 12,300 RMB/ton. Both cost and demand were weak, and merchants shipped at preferential prices. As of the 18th, the market offer of BR was 12,300~12,800 RMB/ton, and that of private BR was 11,700~11,900 RMB/ton.
Analysis review
At present, the operating rate of BR plants in China has decreased slightly, and the supply side has eased in the short term.
Since October, the 30,000 t/a BR plants of Jinzhou Petrochemical and 80,000 t/a of Shengyu Chemical have been shut down for maintenance, and the 72,000 t/a BR plants of Taixiang Yubu were restarted to normal operation. Since October, the pressure on the supply side of BR has eased slightly. In addition, in the near future, Hopu 60,000 t/a and Lande 50,000 t/a BR plants are planned to be overhauled; The 100,000 t/a BR plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company has been delayed in commissioning. In late October, the supply side of BR was relatively tight, supporting BR.
Since October, the raw material butadiene market has declined slightly, and the cost support for BR was weak. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of October 18, the price of butadiene was 7,760 RMB/ton, down 6.54% from the price of 8,303 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.
Since October, the natural rubber market has declined slightly, and the support for BR was weak. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of October 18, the price of natural rubber was 11,980 RMB/ton, down 2.68% from 12310 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.
The demand side was weak. The operating rate of downstream tire enterprises declined in October, and the demand side had not enough support for BR. It is understood that in the first ten days of October, the domestic full steel tire operating rate was 58%, and the semi steel tire operating rate was 63%, a low decline.
Market outlook
Analysts from SunSirs believe that at present, the supply pressure of BR production chain has eased slightly, but the cost has declined. It is expected that the price of BR will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.
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