Price trend

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price index of the domestic rare earth market declined slightly in the second half of the month, and the domestic light rare earth market declined. On October 19, the rare earth index was 662 points, 8 points lower than the previous day, 34.26% lower than the cycle's highest point of 1,007 points (2022-02-24), and 144.28% higher than the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

Analysis review

The prices of domestic metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide declined to varying degrees. On the 19th, the price of alloy praseodymium and neodymium dropped 2,500 RMB/ton to 822,500 RMB/ton, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide dropped 5,000 RMB/ton to 672,500 RMB/ton, the price of neodymium oxide dropped 5,000 RMB/ton to 760,000 RMB/ton, the price of metal praseodymium dropped 20,000 RMB/ton to 975,000 RMB/ton, and the price of praseodymium oxide dropped 20,000 RMB/ton to 725,000 RMB/ton.

The circulation of light rare earths in China decreased, but the enterprises overstocked inventories, coupled with poor downstream procurement after the festival, and the market price of light rare earths declined. The supply of light rare earth is mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia. Due to the blockade of Baotou and other regions, the manufacturer's shipment is limited. At present, there is no specific notice on the release date. The production of enterprises is relatively normal, but the shipment is difficult, and the spot supply is reduced. Downstream merchants had sufficient stock before the National Day holiday, and some manufacturers mainly digested the inventory after the holiday. Their purchasing mood was not good, resulting in few orders, difficulty for dealers to ship, and lower transaction prices.

According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles is guaranteed. According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in China was 2.672 million and 2.61 million respectively in September 2022, up 28.1% and 25.7% year on year respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 700,000, a record high. The production and sales of automobiles rose significantly, the demand in the new energy field was still supported, and the domestic light rare earth market declined slightly.

Market outlook

The new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioners in the downstream of rare earths have achieved sustainable development. Due to repeated epidemics in some regions and limited downstream procurement, the orders of magnetic material enterprises have been poor recently. Downstream businesses mainly digest inventory. However, with the start of the rare earth peak season, analysts of SunSirs predict that the decline of rare earth market will be limited, and there is still a trend of recovery in the later period.

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