The price adjustment window of this round of domestic oil products was opened at 24:00 on October 24. The retail price of this round of domestic oil products is expected to increase. Since 2022, the price of oil products has experienced nineteen price adjustments, including eleven price increases, seven price decreases, and one grounding. The change rate of crude oil in this round is starting forward. Even if the price of crude oil falls back, the change rate is still in a positive range.
Entering this round of pricing cycle, the change rate of international crude oil is beginning to rise. Even though the crude oil has turned into a downward trend, it has not yet fully reversed the increase of crude oil during the National Day holiday, making the current round of price adjustment of refined oil face an upward expectation. Since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to cut their production target by 2 million barrels per day during the National Day holiday, the expectation of tight crude oil supply has led to a rise in oil prices. However, the release of reserves in the United States followed. In addition, against the background of high global inflation, the market strengthened the expectation of the central bank to significantly increase interest rates. The expectation of economic recession risk weakened the demand for fuel. In the short term, it hedged the positive impact of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies (OPEC+) to significantly reduce production, and crude oil prices fell accordingly. As of the 20th, the settlement price of the main crude oil futures contract of the U.S. WTI in November was 85.98 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main crude oil futures contract of Brent in December was 92.38 dollars/barrel. The comprehensive change rate of crude oil varieties was 1.16%. It is estimated that the retail price of refined oil in this round will increase by about 180 yuan/ton, the adjustment range will be narrowed, and the upward trend has not changed.
In terms of gasoline: the international crude oil price has declined, the news has weakened the support of the oil market, the impact of local epidemics in China, the travel and activity radius of residents has decreased, the gasoline demand has been sluggish, and the refinery shipment is difficult to increase, so the price of locally refined gasoline has declined.
Diesel: After returning from the National Day holiday, diesel in some cities was replaced with a negative sign, and the price rose accordingly. In addition, the commencement of outdoor engineering infrastructure and other industries remained at a high level. The autumn harvest season had an impact on diesel demand, and diesel exports increased. The manufacturers controlled sales, and the diesel market price remained at a high level.
In the later stage, the supply and demand sides of the oil market will increase the game in the future, and the oil price probability will remain volatile. The operating rate of main refineries and local refineries fluctuates limited, the supply of resources is relatively stable, the domestic gasoline is lack of demand support, the gasoline price may decline slightly, the demand for diesel oil is still good, plus the impact of export growth, but the wholesale price of diesel oil is gradually approaching the price limit, and the diesel oil price will remain high.
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