Price trend

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, as of October 25, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 7,000 RMB/ton, which increased by 334 RMB/ton, or 3.96%, compared with that of October 1 (6,666 RMB/ton).

Analysis review

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of SunSirs that since October (10.1-10.25), the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong showed a trend of "rising first and then falling". The "upward trend" of n-butanol was mainly shown after the National Day, after which the n-butanol market saw a broad rise. On October 10, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 7,600 RMB/ton, up 14% three days after the festival.

The rising momentum of n-butanol market after the festival mainly came from the following three aspects:

First, in terms of supply, on the eve of the National Day, the downstream of n-butanol was actively stocking up, and the manufacturers had a good performance in destocking. Therefore, when they returned after the National Day, the overall inventory of n-butanol market was low, and the supply pressure was small, supporting the market price to rise.

Second, in terms of cost, after the National Day holiday, the steady rise of propylene market gave support to the cost of n-butanol, and the overall mentality of the n-butanol industry was good.

Third, on the demand side, it was reported that after the National Day holiday, the storage, parking and maintenance plan of a n-butanol unit in Shandong Province might drove the downstream to continue to replenish goods after the holiday, so the overall demand side also brought some good expectations.

At the end of October, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong began to decline from a high level. On October 25, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong referred to 7,000 RMB/ton, and the price fell by 500-600 RMB/ton at the end of October. The main reasons for the decline of the n-butanol market from the high level were as follows:

First, in terms of cost, since late October, the market price of raw propylene fell, and the cost support given to n-butanol became loose. The market of n-butanol "went down with the raw materials".

Second, on the demand side, after the National Day holiday, the periodic replenishment of n-butanol downstream was completed, the demand support became weaker, the overall downstream commencement was general, the trading atmosphere in the market was light, and the n-butanol market price was weak and fell.

In terms of upstream propylene, since October (10.01-10.24), the domestic propylene market rose first and then declined, showing a downward trend overall. According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, on October 24, the reference price of propylene was 7,440.60 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.36% compared with that on October 1 (7,620.60 RMB/ton)

Market outlook

At present, the transaction in the n-butanol market is relatively cold, the trading atmosphere in the market is tepid, and the pace of shipment is general. According to the n-butanol data engineer of SunSirs, in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong will be dominated by weak consolidation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.