Price trend

According to the data of SunSirs, on October 26, the average price of oil-made ethylene glycol was 4,133.33 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.60% from last Friday and a year -on -year decrease of 35.16%.

Glycol Fundamentals Overview

Supply side: the supply started to increase. With the restart of early maintenance devices, the domestic ethylene glycol supply increased.

The dynamics of some devices are summarized as follows:

The 260,000 ton unit of Jianyuan has been restarted recently;

Shanxi Woneng's 300,000 ton unit was reduced to 30% to 40% on October 20 due to environmental impact;

The load of the 400,000 ton unit of Yulin Chemical was lowered to 40-50% for operation, and it had been started at 70-80% in the early stage;

Tongliao Jinmei 300,000 ton unit is planned to be restarted in late October, and the unit was shut down in early October;

Shaanxi Yanchang 100000 ton plant is still being restarted recently. As of October 20, the operating rate of ethylene glycol was 59.88%;

The 600,000 ton new plant in Yulin, Shaanxi is still in the process of trial run, and it is expected to produce products around the end of the month.

Demand side: On October 25, the operating rate of polyester was 82.37%, a small increase compared with the previous month. The production and sales of polyester filament were 49.6% (- 0.5%).

Inventory data: According to the inventory data, the ethylene glycol inventory in the main port of East China on October 24 was 811000 tons, 36100 tons less than that on October 20. From October 24 to October 30, the arrival volume of East China's main port is expected to be 208000 tons.

Import and export data:

From January to September, the cumulative import volume of ethylene glycol was 5,808,300 tons, down 8.13% year on year; In September, the import volume of ethylene glycol was 618,400 tons, up 3.38% month on month and 2.91% year on year, and the dependence on imports decreased slightly to 61%.

From January to September, the cumulative export volume of ethylene glycol was 33,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 71.49%; Among them, the export volume of ethylene glycol in September was 1,300t, down 69.62% month on month and up 50.78% year on year.

Market outlook

In the short term, there is a strong expectation of weak supply and strong demand. Under the expectation of new capacity, the pressure on the supply side is significantly increased. In terms of demand, the main downstream polyester products in the traditional peak season of Golden September and Silver October were flat, and the future market is expected to be dominated by weak consolidation, and the expected price fluctuation range is 3,800-4,150 RMB/ton. In the future, please wait and see the maintenance continuity of Coal Chemical and the follow-up of terminal orders.

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