Price trend

According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the price of phosphorus yellow in Yunnan and Guizhou market rose this month. The average price of phosphorus yellow at the beginning of the month was 36,375 RMB/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 37,250 RMB/ton. The price rose by 2.41% within the month.

Analysis review

The phosphorus yellow market price rose first and then fell this month. As of the 27th, the market trading situation was average. Overall, it rose slightly. After the National Day holiday, phosphorus yellow moved upward, and after a small rise, the market weakened. Downstream purchases slowed down, inquiries increased, actual transactions were cautious, and phosphorus yellow market prices fell. In the second half of the month, the price of phosphorus yellow was relatively stable, and the manufacturers had a strong desire to support the price. Most manufacturers' quotations were firm or suspended, and the actual transaction price in the market declined. As of the 27th, the manufacturer's quotation was 37,000 RMB/ton, and the actual transaction was mainly negotiated on a single basis.

In terms of phosphate rock, the domestic phosphate rock market generally fell slightly. After the National Day holiday, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock market was quiet, and the weak market situation of the terminal phosphate fertilizer market gave ordinary support to the phosphate rock. Most of the support in the phosphate rock market came from the continuous tension on the supply side, and most of the quotations from the operators remained stable. Some mining enterprises in Sichuan had slightly lowered the market price of phosphate rock by about 10 RMB/ton. According to the phosphate rock data engineer of SunSirs, in the short term, the domestic phosphate rock market will mainly operate stably, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

In terms of coke, the coke market experienced a round of increase in October 2022. As of the 27th, the price of quasi first grade metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2,600 RMB/ton, and the price at the beginning of the month was 2,500 RMB/ton, with a monthly increase of 4%. The overall price of coke market rose slightly in October, but the market mentality was first strong and then weak. After the end of the National Day, affected by multiple factors, coke enterprises had significantly limited production, and automobile transportation was affected to some extent. The overall supply of coke was tight, and the sales of finished products in the downstream were slightly improved. Under the double positive influence, the first round of coke rose and landed. After landing, the coke market price tended to be stable, during which the coke and steel game mentality was strong, but the price remained temporarily stable. In general, the heating season is approaching, the production restriction season of coking enterprises is coming, and the coke supply is expected to be further tightened. In the future, the focus will be on the profit of downstream steel plants, coke inventory in all links, and the impact of environmental protection policies issued by various regions near the heating season on the coke market.

In terms of demand, the price of phosphoric acid rose first and then fell in October. On October 1, the average price of phosphoric acid was 10,160 RMB/ton, and on October 27, the average price was 9,840 RMB/ton. The price fell within the month by 3.15%. The price of phosphoric acid rose first and then fell, with the overall market price mainly falling. At present, there is no good news on the market, cost support is weakened, manufacturers and dealers operate cautiously, and the industry is in a strong wait-and-see mood. It is expected that the market price of phosphoric acid will move downward in a narrow range in the short term.

Market outlook

Phosphorus yellow analysts from SunSirs believe that phosphorus yellow prices rose first and then fell this month. The overall market price of downstream phosphoric acid fell, and the demand was relatively light. However, this month coincided with the end of the preferential electricity price policy in the wet season, and the coke price rose slightly. With the increase of costs in the next month, phosphorus yellow manufacturers are willing to support the price. It is expected that the phosphorus yellow market will remain deadlocked in the short term.

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