Price trend

In October, the mainstream factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China rose slightly. The price of calcium carbide rose from 3,700.00 RMB/ton on October 1 to 3,950.00 RMB/ton on October 28, an increase of 6.76%. The price at the end of the month fell by 50.83% year-on-year.

On October 27, the calcium carbide commodity index was 103.93, unchanged from the previous day, down 51.03% from the peak of 212.23 points (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 87.30% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Analysis review

From the supply side, the ex factory price of calcium carbide of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China rose slightly this month: Aoveganeng offered 3,950 RMB/ton of calcium carbide at the end of the month, which was 250 RMB/ton higher than that at the beginning of the month; Wuhai Zoomlion offered 3,900 RMB/ton of calcium carbide at the end of the month, up 200 RMB/ton compared with the beginning of the month; Ningxia Xingping’s calcium carbide was quotedat 4,000 RMB/ton at the end of the month, up 300 RMB/ton compared with the beginning of the month. The price of calcium carbide rose slightly, and the shipment was average.

From the weekly K column chart of calcium carbide, the price of calcium carbide rose slightly in October, with the highest weekly increase of 4.05%.

Cost end: the price of semi-coke fell first and then rose

The overall price of semi-coke in the upstream of calcium carbide rose slightly this month. In October, the average market price of domestic Medium semi-coke feedstock rose from 1,703.33 RMB/ton on October 1 to 1,778.33 RMB/ton on October 27, an increase of 4.4%. Due to the shortage of coal and winter storage, the price of lump coal continued to rise, the cost of semi-coke enterprises was under pressure, the price of upstream coke continued to rise, and the cost support of calcium carbide increased.

Demand side: PVC market price dropped

The PVC market price in the downstream of calcium carbide fell sharply this month. The PVC market price in this month fell from 6,265.71 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 6,042.86 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.56%. The price at the end of the month fell 42.45% year-on-year. he ex factory price of 1,4-butanediol in this month was high and fluctuated narrowly, with the ex factory price of about 14,600.00 RMB/ton. On the whole, the downstream market of calcium carbide rose and fell with each other this month, and the downstream demand was average.

Market outlook

In the first ten days of November, the calcium carbide market may fall slightly, mainly finishing. The price of upstream raw material semi-coke has risen slightly recently, and the cost support of calcium carbide is well. However, the downstream 1,4-butanediol and PVC markets declined slightly, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that calcium carbide prices in northwest China will fall slightly in shock in the first ten days of November, mainly finishing.

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