According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, in October 2022, the prices of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp both rose first and then fell. On October 28, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong was 7,480 RMB/ ton, which was 1.01% lower than the average price at the beginning of the month (7,556 RMB/ ton on October 1). On October 28, the average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong was 6,802 RMB/ ton, 1.22% higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average market price on October 1 was 6,720 RMB/ ton).
From the observation of market changes, the spot prices of softwood and hardwood pulp increased by different extents after the National Day holiday, while the pulp futures prices continued to fluctuate. The overseas pulp inventory is at a medium low level, the short-term global pulp shipment volume recovers slowly, and the market stock of wood pulp is still tight, which plays a supporting role in the high price operation of pulp. In late October, there were still some disturbing factors on the pulp supply side. The arrival of pulp to the port increased. The port inventory was expected to accumulate in a narrow range, which was bad for the spot price trend of pulp.
In October, domestic downstream terminal demand was weak, domestic consumption recovered slowly, and paper mill profits recovered slowly, which suppressed pulp demand and price. It is difficult to predict the fluctuation of superimposed RMB exchange rate, and the external quotation is mainly stable. Therefore, although the spot price of wood pulp has risen, the positive momentum is slightly weak. Near the end of the month, the domestic demand side remained stable, and the market performance was average. Under the influence of higher raw material prices, the paper mill had limited enthusiasm to supplement the stock under pressure.
On October 26, the RMB rose 1.75% against the US dollar at the spot closing, a new high since October 12, and the single day increase was the largest since the exchange rate reform in July 2005. The cost side of pulp was suppressed, so the domestic spot price of pulp was lowered, which depressed the pulp price.
In terms of futures, on October 28, the opening price of the main contract of the pulp futures SP2301 of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 6,716 RMB/ ton, the latest price was 6,670 RMB/ ton, a total of 261,900 were traded, and 181,676 positions were held.
SunSirs wood pulp analysts believe that the current spot price of wood pulp is affected by the RMB exchange rate, market supply and downstream demand, which makes the price present a trend of high but weak shocks. The market is becoming more and more wait-and-see. It is expected that the short-term spot price of wood pulp may continue to operate stably, moderately and weakly.
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