441 # silicon price trend
The market price of metal silicon was stable in October. As of the 31st, the quotation of metal silicon nationwide was 21,580 RMB/ton, up 1.51% from the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the metal silicon market rose steadily. On the 12th, the market transaction warmed up, and the dry season was approaching. Silicon plants were reluctant to sell at a high price. Since the middle of October, the metal silicon had maintained stability at a high level, and there were few inquiries from the downstream, resulting in deadlock between the upstream and downstream; At the end of the month, silicon prices fell steadily, downstream demand was weak, and low price supply gradually emerged.
Analysis review
Supply
There was still a risk of supply disruption. Repeated outbreaks in Xinjiang and some regions had hindered transportation, resulting in slow production increase in some silicon plants. Southwest China entered a normal water period on the 26th, and the electricity price increased by 0.08-0.1 yuan/kWh. Yunnan Province increased on November 1st, and the cost of metal silicon smelting rose.
It is understood that as of October 30, the metal silicon furnace opening rate was 54.84%, including 120 in Xinjiang, 72 in Sichuan and 85 in Yunnan.
Inventory:
As of October 28, the total inventory of metal silicon in the three places was 121,000 tons, and the overall social inventory increased by 1,000 tons compared with the end of last month, with a year-on-year increase of 98.4%. Huangpu Port had a large number of shipments, and its inventory had decreased slightly. Due to public health incidents in many places in the north, transactions in Tianjin Port were relatively flat, and warehouse imports and exports were relatively stable.
Demand
In October, polysilicon was stable. The three downstream products of metal silicon, only the demand for polysilicon remained prosperous, and new capacity continued to be put into production. The expectation of a large release of silicon materials was relatively strong. In the future, polysilicon may face excess.
The average quoted price of silicone DMC market in mainstream regions in China was 17,840 RMB/ton. The downstream consumption of silicone was sluggish, the profit space was compressed, many manufacturers stopped production, and the demand for metal silicon was weak.
The market price of aluminum alloy was 18,700 RMB/ton, the operating rate of regeneration was 51.6%, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 64%, and the operating rate is the same month on month. Small enterprises had reduced production, and the overall demand was poor.
Market outlook
The southwest wet season at the supply end ended, and the production cost increased. The epidemic situation in Xinjiang affected the production reduction of enterprises, supporting the price of metal silicon to a certain extent. However, at the downstream consumer end, only the demand of polysilicon remained optimistic, while the consumption of aluminum alloy and organic silicon was stagnant. It is expected that the silicon price will operate weakly and stably in the short term.
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