Price trend

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, in October, the domestic adipic acid market went out of the trend of surging and falling. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, in October, the domestic adipic acid market went out of the trend of surging and falling. After the festival, affected by the rising market of suppliers and tight supply, adipic acid rose sharply, with a weekly increase of more than 12%. After the middle of the month, due to the lack of good support on the demand side, the price fell back, erasing some of the previous gains. At the end of the month, the market price range of adipic acid was 10,400-10,600 RMB/ton. Adipic acid rose 5.93% in the whole month.

Analysis review

Supply

From the perspective of market supply, in the first ten days of October, suppliers generally supported the market. During the festival, Shandong Hualu Hengsheng, a big factory, generally raised its offer by 500 RMB/ton, and on the first day after the festival, it again raised its offer by 500 RMB/ton. Moreover, the operating rate of enterprises was generally low, maintained at 50%, slightly lower than that before the festival. The manufacturer's inventory pressure eased, supporting higher prices. Double line maintenance of Hualu Hengsheng and Chongqing Huafengjun; Haili and Liaohua single lines operated and other units operate with reduced load (70% to 80%). Since the middle of October, the operating rate of enterprises had increased, and the load of Zhonghao and Taihua plants increased, bringing more supply. Supply was excessive from tight to loose.

Cost side

On the cost side, it can be seen from the figure above that adipic acid was highly related to the trend of upstream pure benzene. Pure benzene went out of the market that rose first and then fell. During the National Day holiday, international crude oil prices rose sharply, boosting downstream chemicals. Pure benzene prices also rose driven by crude oil. The supply of pure benzene in East China was tight, and spot prices were generally higher. In the middle and late ten days, the price of pure benzene fell, which had a significant impact on adipic acid. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, pure benzene fell by 10% from October 11 to the end of the month.

Demand sides

The downstream demand of adipic acid did not change much, and the demand remained rigid mainly. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the downstream PA66 rose by 2.02% in October, with a significantly slower pace of growth (up to 11.2% in September). The downstream demand did not bring much benefit to adipic acid. The lack of demand increment and the lack of cooperation from the downstream purchasing end foreshadowed the high level of adipic acid. According to the monitoring of the business community, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang was 25,250 RMB/ton at the end of October.

Industrial chain

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, adipic acid was stronger than the upstream and downstream. The main raw material, pure benzene, dropped significantly, easing the pressure on the cost side of adipic acid, and the manufacturer's profits were improved, but at the same time, some downstream profits were squeezed.

Market outlook

SunSirs believes that at the end of the month, there was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, and the settlement of the big factory was imminent. In addition, the decline of pure benzene entered a certain platform period, and the power of decline was not strong in the later period, mainly due to the positive impact of the supply side. At present, the maintenance of devices is too much, and it is difficult to resume and lift the load of many devices in the later period. But it is difficult to improve the demand too much. To sum up, adipic acid may maintain a weak shock, and the game between supply and demand will lead to a stalemate in the market.

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