Price trend

In October 2022, the domestic 1 # tin ingot market suffered from shock and declined. The average price of the domestic market was 185,460 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 166,410 RMB/ton at the end of the month, down 10.27%.

On October 31, the tin commodity index was 84.77, down 0.97 points from the previous day, down 54.84% from the cycle's highest point of 187.70 points (2022-03-09), and up 97.78% from the lowest point of 42.86 points on December 9, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Analysis review

It can be seen from the monthly K-bar chart that the tin price has mainly declined in the past six months, with a large decline of -18.54% in May and -22.32% in June. From the weekly K-bar chart, we can see that the lead price fell more recently than rose, and it declined as a whole.

In October, the tin price fluctuated downward. In addition to the impact of macro factors, the most important factor affecting the continuous decline of tin price was supply and demand. Since September, the tin output has gradually recovered, and the smelters for early maintenance have started work in succession. The tin output has increased significantly since September. As the profit of imported tin rose, since the third quarter of this year, the import of refined tin has been in good condition, and the domestic tin supply was generally acceptable. In terms of downstream demand, the downstream of tin is mainly tin solder, which is mainly used in electronic products, accounting for about 80% of tin solder. However, the overall performance of the electronics industry was poor recently, not only in domestic but also in foreign electronics consumption, which made it difficult for downstream demand to support tin prices.

Market outlook

To sum up, there is no big positive expectation for the supply and demand of tin recently, and tin is very vulnerable to macro and market capital disturbance due to its low inventory. SunSirs expects that the future tin price will still be more affected by macro, mainly maintaining a wide range of shocks, and the overall trend is weak.

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